Beijing’s Ongoing Struggle with Taiwan: A Historical and Modern Challenge
The ongoing existence of Taiwan as a self-governing democracy is a powerful and humiliating reminder for Beijing of China’s troubled and “embarrassing” history during the 19th and early 20th centuries. The survival of Chinese Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek’s forces on the island, despite being routed by Mao’s Communist Party, was largely due to the protection of the United States.
For the United States, supporting Taiwan is one of the last ideological battlegrounds of the Cold War, representing a recognition of its limitations. Although there is confidence that Taiwan and its allies can repel an invasion, the Japanese government has warned that China could land troops in Taiwan within a week of hostilities starting, signalling potential trouble for the island and the region.
To address this humiliation, Chinese President Xi Jinping has set a “deadline” of 2027 to “reunify” Taiwan with the mainland, escalating tensions and potentially drawing the United States and allies, like Australia, into direct conflict with China.
While an uneasy peace continues in the region, many analysts believe it is only a matter of time before a miscalculation or accident leads to full-blown conflict between the United States and China. Adding to the tension, the Japanese government has released a report expressing concerns about the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s capability to launch a coordinated invasion of Taiwan.
Although China’s proximity to Taiwan gives it an advantage in blockade and invasion efforts, achieving maritime and air dominance before allied forces arrive remains a challenge. The Japanese analysis suggests that while Taiwanese resistance would be significant, it might not be sufficient to turn the tide.
Beijing’s invasion strategy would likely involve multi-domain operations, leveraging “grey zone” and “hybrid” warfare capabilities to gain a tactical and strategic advantage ahead of an allied response. The Japanese analysis states, “Such an operation could run into difficulty in the face of counterstrikes’ from Taiwan and US military intervention, so Chinese military forces apparently intend to seize control of the island before the United States’ main forces could get involved.” China might use “hybrid warfare operations,” combining armed attacks and cyberattacks on vital infrastructure, to delay US and allied interventions.
This approach aims to incapacitate Taiwanese resistance and complicate US response decision-making by reducing the physical presence of US forces and creating unreliable and conflicting information for decision-makers and commanders, giving Beijing time to achieve its objectives.
Australians will need to accept several uncomfortable realities in the coming years. As the Indo-Pacific becomes the most contested region in the world, both the Australian public and policymakers will have to acknowledge that without significant effort, investment, and reform, future generations may face economic challenges, and a nation increasingly influenced by rising regional powers.
