There is no escaping the reality of the decline and stagnation of the Western world, from Europe to North America and closer to home. The values, institutions, and populations of Western nations have grown tired, divided, both decadent and decrepit, and increasingly hostile to both one another and the global order.

Nowhere is this clearer than in the United States, the epicentre of the post-Second World War economic, political, and strategic order, currently in the midst of the most heated presidential race in living memory. Both sides frequently remind onlookers and the American public of “what is at stake.”

Many historians, analysts, and commentators have been quick to remind that none of this is without historic precedent, as many comparisons between the fall of Rome and our modern predicament have become glaringly obvious, echoing Mark Twain’s saying that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

Whether in the streets of Europe or the United States or on the steps of the Sydney Opera House, it is clear that the Western world faces unprecedented challenges to the stability, peace, and prosperity of the post-Second World War order, both at home and abroad, with dramatic impacts on the global balance of power.

Highlighting the growing domestic challenges facing both the United States and the broader Western world, the ongoing turmoil that has beset the US political system: “Joe Biden’s age and incoherence should be seen as the personification of the accelerating decline of the West – marked by the growing arrogance, self-interest, and hubris of its ruling elites – that has drastically eroded the quality of our governance with devastating implications.” Many commentators have further expressed scepticism about Kamala Harris’s ability to handle global conflicts effectively.

While many Australians seem to be complacent or oblivious about the changes in the wind that are fundamentally rewriting the order of things, opening the door to further advancement by the world’s rising autocratic powers, for others it hasn’t gone unnoticed. “Simmering internal political hatreds have intensified, inequality and concentrations of economic power have soared to nearly unprecedented levels as real incomes stagnate or reverse for the bulk of the population. Public trust in institutions has collapsed amid rampant social decay in all but the top echelons of the population, while the chance of nuclear war has grown. Much of this stems from deliberate policy choices by a richer, ever more remote governing class that increasingly ignores the interests and opinions of everyone else.

Individually, all of these factors are not necessarily terminal for the United States or the broader Western collection of nations, but together and then subsequently combined with the march of international autocracy, they seemingly indicate a terminal state of pressure-induced decline. So grim is the outlook, Stanford University academic John Ioannidis has started asking whether the West has entered a terminal ‘death spiral,’ which he defines as a ‘vicious cycle of self-reinforcing dysfunctional behaviour characterized by continuous flawed decision making, myopic single-minded focus on one set of solutions, denial, distrust, micromanagement, dogmatic thinking, and learned helplessness.

Unpacking this further, quoting Ioannidis, drew historical comparisons, explaining, “Societies fall apart, and societal dysfunction rises when an ever-increasing group of have-nots are unable to sustain themselves, let alone earn the money and produce the food to sustain the rich, and the difference between the elite and masses have become too big to bridge. In the earlier periods of the (Roman) empire, the elites were willing to offer lives and treasure in the service of the common interest, while in the period of decline the elites became increasingly selfish. At that time the ratio of incomes of the richest Romans to the poorest was about 20 times, a ratio that exploded to many thousands by the time the empire collapsed around AD 400 and not far beyond what it is now in the US and Europe.”

What does all this mean? Looking back to the well-recognized and accepted domestic and global challenges, leading economists, concluded that the liberal democracy model that created jobs, stability, higher wages, and broad social cohesion from the end of World War II “has fallen short on almost every count since around 1980.”

Despite the rhetoric and lofty ambition highlighted by both sides of the political debate, this paints a gloomy picture for the average Australian, no matter the demographic group in which they fall, but especially for the younger generations. Declining economic opportunity, coupled with the rapidly deteriorating global and regional balance of power and the increased politicization of every aspect of contemporary life, only serves to exacerbate the disconnection, apathy, and helplessness felt by many Australians.

This attitude compounds the growing sentiment that we are speeding towards a predestined outcome, disempowering the Australian people and policymakers as we confront seemingly insurmountable challenges with little to no benefit and at a high-risk/reward calculation. It is therefore easy to understand why so many Australians, both in the general public and within our decision-making circles, seem to have checked out and are quite happy to allow the nation to continue to limp along in mediocrity because it is easier than having lofty ambitions.

If both Australian policymakers and the Australian public don’t snap out of the comforting security blanket that is the belief in the “End of History,” the nation will continue to face an uncomfortable and increasingly dangerous new reality, where we truly are no longer the masters of our own destiny. Our economic resilience, capacity, and competitiveness will prove equally critical to success in the new world power paradigm as that of the United States, the United Kingdom, or Europe, and we need to recognize the opportunities before us. Expanding and enhancing the opportunities available to Australians while building critical economic resilience, and as a result, deterrence to economic coercion, should be the core focus of the government. Only when our economy is strong can we ensure that we can deter aggression towards the nation or our interests.

The following quote is often attributed to Prime Minister Sir Edmond ‘Toby’ Barton GCMG,KC who served as Australia’s First Prime Minister 1901-1903. Although it is strongly believed and has been for many years, he did not make that speech, it was originally written by Theodore Roosevelt, however the wording changed to relate to Australia. Many Australians believe that this should be an immigration requirement.

The quote reads, “In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an Australian and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else, for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an Australian, and nothing but an Australian. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an Australian, but something else also, isn’t an Australian at all. We have room for but one flag, the Australian flag … We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language … and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the Australian people.”

AAP FactCheck found the immigration speech attributed to Edmund Barton is false. It was written by US President Theodore Roosevelt. The letter was dated three days before his death on January 6, 1919 aged 60, and proved to be Roosevelt’s last public message. In the letter he reiterated his consistently held strong belief in the complete assimilation of immigrants. 

Book title. Action! Action! Action! A Short History of the Employment of Australian Artillery, 1871-2021, by Nicholas Floyd and Paul Stevens. (See picture of cover).

The book is about to be launched and will be of interest to veterans, particularly those with artillery service. It is a short history, covering the first 150 years of Australian Artillery. It has been compiled for the education of new Artillery soldiers and officers; presented in an easy-to-read style.

Artillery troops have been part of the force, everywhere the Australian Army has deployed. So, the book also outlines 150 years of Australian Army history, told through the “Artillery story”. It will be an interesting read for anyone wanting an overview of the Australian Army did over the period.

The Royal Australian Artillery Historical Company has published the book, with Big Sky Publishing, Sydney.

Launch. On 1st of August 2024, in Canberra.

Available for purchase now. Purchasing details are on the Royal Australian Artillery Historical Company website https://artilleryhistory.org/

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is on a mission to find “common ground” with China to end the war with Russia. Kuleba’s visit to China is the first by a Ukrainian foreign minister since the war began. During his visit, he met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Guangzhou, aiming to find a mutual basis for peace. Kuleba believes that a just peace in Ukraine aligns with China’s strategic interests and hopes to secure China’s support for a peace conference before the US presidential election.

China maintains close ties with Russia and has a unique stance on the conflict. Although China did not attend a recent peace conference in Switzerland, it is actively seeking to facilitate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia to boost its diplomatic standing over the US, which is currently facing significant diplomatic scrutiny both internally and externally. China’s push for an end to the war considers the interests of both sides, a position at odds with Ukraine and Western countries that demand a Russian withdrawal.

China has recently achieved diplomatic success by brokering the Beijing Declaration, an agreement among Hamas, Fatah, and other Palestinian groups to form an interim national reconciliation government for post-war Gaza. If China manages to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, its diplomatic influence will significantly increase. The global community may then view China as a nation capable of brokering peace deals, in contrast to nations known for starting conflicts abroad.

In 1967 tensions in the Middle East were raised once again after a canal constructed by Syria threatened Israel’s water supply. This soon led to a war against Israel with Egypt and Jordan allying with Syria, who were also being supported by Iraq and Lebanon. Despite being underestimated and outnumbered, Israel demonstrated its military prowess and pulled off a swift and decisive victory.

Experience the intensity and excitement of Exercise #PitchBlack24 with our week two highlight video!  Our Imagery Specialists will take you behind the scenes at, starting with the first wave of flying operations to the Mindil Beach Flying Display.

The Australian government has halted plans to develop the $800m Ghost Bat drone as a lethal weapon after Boeing Australia was excluded from a US government program to supply 1000 autonomous combat jets to work alongside manned fighters.

Initially seen as Australia’s most promising “killer drone,” the Ghost Bat will now be designed for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions, according to senior government sources. This pivot was anticipated by the government, who decided in advance to shift the drone’s primary mission in collaboration with Boeing.

A government source familiar with the program stated that developing the Ghost Bat as an ISR drone meets a critical Defence requirement and avoids the complexities of establishing “rules of engagement” for its use of weapons. Defense analysts had warned that the Ghost Bat risked becoming an expensive “orphan” if developed as an armed platform outside the US Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program.

The US Air Force selected Anduril and General Atomics as top candidates for manufacturing and testing under the CAA program, sidelining Boeing Australia. The MQ-28A Ghost Bat, the first military aircraft designed and built in Australia in 50 years, has received strong backing from successive governments. Earlier this year, the Labor government allocated an additional $400m to produce three “block 2” test aircraft by the end of next year, emphasizing the drone’s potential combat roles.

The Ghost Bat program is politically significant, ensuring 350 ongoing jobs and a new production facility at Wellcamp Business Park, west of Brisbane. Despite disappointment over not advancing in the US CCA program, Boeing remains committed to developing next-generation autonomous combat aircraft for both US and global military customers. Work will continue on the Ghost Bat and the MQ-25 Stingray, an aerial refueller designed for aircraft carriers.

Boeing Australia highlighted the modular and open design of the Ghost Bat, enabling it to support various Australian Defence Force (ADF) missions in line with the National Defence Strategy. This strategy, unveiled in April, promises continued investment in uncrewed and autonomous systems, including the Ghost Bat, to provide asymmetric surveillance and strike capabilities.

The Ghost Bat program has received $849m in funding, with just under $500m spent so far. Malcolm Davis, an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, noted that the original concept for the Ghost Bat aimed to extend the reach and firepower of crewed aircraft as a flying “missile truck” and electronic warfare platform. He criticized the shift to an unarmed platform as undervaluing the concept and called for an evolved, larger version with combat capabilities.

Strategic Analysis Australia research director Marcus Hellyer argued that an unarmed Ghost Bat could still perform combat roles, such as acting as “sophisticated flying decoys” or carrying electronic warfare payloads to jam enemy radar systems. He emphasized the importance of designing the drone to incorporate new sensors, weapons, or tools easily.

The government has allocated $10bn towards uncrewed and autonomous capabilities over the next decade, introducing several new drones for the ADF. These include the US-made Switchblade 300 loitering munition for the army, capable of delivering a grenade-sized warhead over distances of up to 20km. Australian company Sypaq and Germany’s Quantum Systems will supply small tactical drones to the ADF by next year.

In addition, the government has expedited the delivery of $2bn worth of landing craft for the army. The first of 18 medium-sized landing craft will be delivered by 2026, with the delivery of eight heavy landing craft moved up to 2028 from the original 2035 schedule, according to Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy.

1942: Japanese Submarine I-25 – and its Glen reconnaissance aircraft over: Sydney, Hobart, Wellington, Auckland, Suva and Alaska

In mid-February 1942, a Japanese “mother’ submarine shelled Newcastle, and launched three mini-submarines into Sydney Harbour. On 17 February 1942, a Japanese “mother submarine” – I-25 (captain: Lieutenant Commander Akiji Tagami; 98 crew, 108 metres in length – three times the displacement of a German U-boat), launched a “collapsible” Yokosuka E14Y “Glen” float-plane that overflew parts of Sydney (La Perouse, Botany Bay, North Head – reportedly causing consternation in harbour-side suburbs. The unarmed Glen reconnaissance float-plane had a crew of two, and could be dismantled – broken-down into twelve pieces, and stored on the submarine in four water-tight “hangar “compartments forward of the submarine’s conning tower. Once assembled, it was launched from rails by a catapult or off-loaded by a derrick and took off from the sea-surface. Its mission was reconnaissance of enemy naval vessels – principally seeking warships of the US Navy.

From the Sydney area, the I-25 submarine sailed south into Bass Strait and anchored off Cape Wickham (King Island). On 26 February 1942, the Glen aircraft (pilot: Warrant Flying Officer Nobuo Fujita; observer/gunner Shoji Okuda, was launched and overflew Point Lonsdale, Geelong, Laverton and Melbourne (see the earlier item for detail on this three-hour flight over Victorian objectives). Leaving Bass Strait, the I-25 sailed on the surface down the east coast of Tasmania to Great Oyster Bay – the Bay is about 35 km long by 15 km wide and is protected by the red granite cliffs and steep headlands of the Freycinet Peninsula and Schouten Island. The Glen float-plane was placed onto the sea by I-25’s derrick – ie not launched from the submarine’s catapult. Flying up the Derwent River and overflying Hobart and the Mount Wellington area, some activity was noted – including five cargo ships but no warships. The Glen aircraft later did flights from the I-25 over Wellington (8 March 1942),

Auckland (13 March) and Suva (17 March) – before returning to its base at Kwajalein in the Marianas/Marshal Islands. In a subsequent mission by the I-25 on 9 September 1942, its Glen float-plane dropped two incendiary bombs into the forests of Oregon (US) in attempts to create forest fires. According to Wikipedia, this was the only time that the mainland United States was ever bombed by enemy aircraft – and the second continental territory to be bombed as such during wartime, ie after the bombing raid on Dutch Harbor in Unalaska (Alaska) by aircraft from two Japanese aircraft carriers on 3-4 June 1942.

The I-25 was subsequently sunk by US destroyers near Espiroto Santo (Vanuatu) in October 1943 – and all hands were lost.