ED: Worth Watching

Watch the inimitable Professor Ian Plimer launch the Institute of Public Affairs’ Climate Change: The Facts 2025. Climate policy remains the single biggest policy obsession of Western governments and institutions such as the United Nations, NGOs and universities. It impacts trade flows, the geopolitical balance, economic growth, and public opinion in the West. Climate Change: The Facts 2025 is the fifth edition of a series of books that has spanned 15 years. It is a truly scientific work and was edited by Dr Jennifer Marohasy and Dr John Abbot. The research contained within, from highly credentialed contributors, provides a more complete answer and awareness to how natural variation influences the view of the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis.

Breaking Defence

SYDNEY — The AUKUS nuclear submarine program risks consuming funds needed for other critical defence priorities unless Australia’s defence budget is significantly increased, warned Sir Angus Houston, former head of the Australian Defence Force (ADF).

Speaking at the US Studies Centre, Houston emphasized that the escalating global security threats necessitate a boost in defence spending to at least 3% of GDP. He underscored that without this increase, the high costs of the AUKUS program — Australia’s collaboration with the US and UK to acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines — could erode other essential military capabilities.

Houston, who co-led the 2023 Defence Strategic Review (DSR), noted that the review’s projections, while ambitious, did not fully anticipate the rapidly evolving geopolitical challenges. These include the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, heightened tensions in the Middle East, China’s growing military assertiveness, and the strengthening alliance between China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran.

“When the strategy was published, I described Australia’s strategic circumstances as the most perilous since World War II. The situation has only intensified since then,” Houston stated.

Houston argued that to avoid compromising Australia’s broader defence readiness, the AUKUS submarines must represent a net addition to the country’s military capability. Achieving this, he insisted, is only possible with increased defence funding.

“The only way these submarines can be a net addition to Australian military capability is by increasing our defence spending to 3% or more of GDP as we move into and through the 2030s,” Houston said. “If not, the subs will come at the expense of other vital programs.”

Houston criticized the political establishment for failing to fully grasp the fiscal challenge posed by AUKUS. He warned that without bipartisan acknowledgment of the need for increased spending, Australia risks undermining its overall defence strategy.

The AUKUS program is set to become the most expensive defence endeavour in Australian history. Although officials have expressed confidence in the country’s ability to balance priorities, cracks are starting to show.

For example, earlier this month, Australia cancelled a $5.3 billion AUD satellite contract with Lockheed Martin. Analysts suggest this could be a precursor to further budget cuts as the true costs of the AUKUS program come to light.

Meanwhile, other defence leaders, like Richard Vagg, head of Land Capability for the ADF, have remained optimistic. Vagg recently told Breaking Defence that the ADF is “comfortable” with its investment plans, despite AUKUS concerns.

At the same event, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell emphasized the importance of close cooperation between the US, Australia, and New Zealand to counter China’s growing influence. He urged the next US administration to prioritize strong regional partnerships.

As Australia grapples with the financial demands of AUKUS, Houston’s warning underscores the delicate balance required to bolster national security without sacrificing the broader needs of the defence force.

Without a clear path to increased funding, the challenge of maintaining a robust, balanced military may prove insurmountable.

Australian Army and Indonesian Armed Forces soldiers disembark an LLC during an amphibious assault serial on Exercise Keris Woomera at Banongan Beach, Indonesia. ADF Photo

Australia and Indonesia have achieved a significant milestone in their defence collaboration, executing the largest joint amphibious assault ever conducted between the two nations. This high-profile operation took place last week as part of Exercise Keris Woomera 2024, showcasing a powerful display of military coordination and operational capability.

Under the protection of Australian Army Tiger attack helicopters and Indonesian Air Force F-16 fighter jets, a formidable combined force of troops, tanks, and military vehicles stormed Banongan Beach, East Java. The landing marked the climax of the month-long exercise, which began with the departure of HMAS Adelaide (L01) from Darwin. The Canberra-class landing helicopter dock, serving as the primary amphibious platform, played a central role in ferrying forces to the shore.

The exercise involved over 2,000 personnel conducting drills in both Australian and Indonesian waters. Indonesian Marines were embedded with their Australian counterparts from the outset, training together aboard Adelaide. This included a joint landing in Queensland before the concluding operation in East Java. HMAS Stuart (FFH 113), an Anzac-class frigate, joined Adelaide in the exercise, contributing to live-fire drills and maritime security operations.

Aside from the large-scale amphibious landing, the exercise incorporated a range of scenarios, including a humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) evacuation. These diverse activities highlighted the adaptability and interoperability of the two nations’ armed forces.

Keris Woomera is a cornerstone of Indo-Pacific Engagement 2024, Australia’s annual series of defence and security activities designed to strengthen partnerships across the region. This year’s engagements span from August to December and include participation from Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Maldives, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam.

The joint assault on Banongan Beach follows the 2023 amphibious landing conducted during Exercise Alon in the Philippines, underscoring Australia’s growing focus on regional amphibious capabilities.

The increasing complexity and scale of joint exercises reflect the deepening ties between Canberra and Jakarta. The recent Australia-Indonesia Defence Cooperation Agreement underscores the commitment of both nations to enhance military-to-military engagements and explore new avenues for collaboration.

Fauzan Malufti, an Indonesian defence analyst, emphasized the significance of Keris Woomera. “This exercise highlights the substantial and rapid increase in defence engagements between the two countries,” Malufti noted. However, he also pointed out untapped opportunities in defence industry cooperation, such as joint procurement, technology transfer, and development initiatives.

Keris Woomera 2024 serves as a testament to the shared commitment of Australia and Indonesia to regional stability and mutual security. As both nations continue to expand their defence collaboration, their partnership stands as a model for cooperative security in the Indo-Pacific.

Defence Today

The Simpson Trophy, the oldest shooting competition in the Southern Hemisphere and one of the oldest globally, marked its 134th year with an event held in October at the Murray Bridge Training Area in South Australia. This historic occasion brought together soldiers, sailors, and artillery personnel to compete in a tradition steeped in history and camaraderie.

Organized by the 10th/27th Battalion, the Royal South Australia Regiment (10/27RSAR), the competition saw participation from across the 9th Brigade, Adelaide Universities Regiment, 6th/13th Light Battery, Royal Australian Artillery, and sailors from HMAS Encounter. The event continues to highlight the enduring importance of marksmanship in Australia’s defence capabilities.

A Proud Heritage

Lieutenant Colonel Aaron Jackson, Commanding Officer of 10/27RSAR, expressed immense pride in his unit’s role in upholding this historic event.

“Standards were very high, and the competition fiercely contested,” he said. “The first competition, held in 1890, was sponsored by The Honourable Alfred Muller Simpson MLC to strengthen South Australia’s colonial defences.

“More than a century later, the Simpson family remains involved, generously donating the prizes each year. This competition not only showcases exceptional marksmanship but also reflects the enduring connection between the military and the South Australian community.”

Lieutenant Colonel Jackson emphasized the dual significance of the event, blending skill and tradition. “Each competitor demonstrated a commitment to maintaining and executing critical combat capabilities while honouring the spirit of this competition in its 134th year,” he added.

Honours and Achievements

The 10/27RSAR team claimed the coveted title of overall team champions, reaffirming their reputation for excellence. Among individual competitors, Trooper Matthew Beelitz, from the 3rd/9th Light Horse (South Australian Mounted Rifles), 1st Armoured Regiment, earned the award for best individual shot, a prestigious recognition of his outstanding marksmanship.

Private Kain McKenzie, a member of the winning 10/27RSAR team, reflected on the significance of participating in such an iconic event.

“It’s an honour and privilege. Knowing this competition dates back to 1890 makes it even more meaningful. Not many people can say they’ve been part of something so historic,” he said.

Private McKenzie acknowledged the intensity of the competition. “Everyone was competing at a high standard, which put pressure on us as an infantry team to deliver. Regular training has been key, and it’s rewarding to see that dedication translate into success,” he said.

A Legacy of Excellence

The Simpson Trophy stands as a remarkable tradition, uniting generations of service personnel in a celebration of skill, history, and community. Its continued success, with the involvement of the Simpson family and the dedication of participating units, highlights the enduring value of marksmanship as a cornerstone of military capability.

As it continues into its 135th year, the Simpson Trophy remains a shining example of how history and tradition can inspire modern excellence, bridging past and present in the service of national defence.

The Krakow Post

Moscow has disclosed that President Vladimir Putin is willing to engage in discussions with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump regarding a potential ceasefire agreement in Ukraine and the conditions necessary to bring an end to the protracted and bloody conflict. According to five sources cited by Reuters, the Russian leader is reportedly open to dialogue with Trump but has drawn firm red lines, including rejecting any significant territorial concessions and demanding that Kyiv abandon its aspirations to join NATO.

This marks the first detailed account of what Putin might consider acceptable terms in a deal brokered by the incoming U.S. administration. The unnamed current and former Russian officials indicated that the Kremlin could agree to freeze the conflict along the existing front lines, effectively cementing the status quo on the ground. Such an arrangement would fall short of a full peace treaty but could halt active hostilities while entrenching Russian control over occupied territories in eastern Ukraine.

These revelations highlight the delicate nature of any potential negotiations, as they would involve addressing fundamental disagreements between Moscow, Kyiv, and Western allies. Ukraine’s leadership has consistently emphasized its sovereignty and territorial integrity, rejecting any compromises that would legitimize Russian territorial gains. Meanwhile, NATO has reaffirmed its support for Ukraine’s right to choose its alliances, a stance that clashes directly with Russia’s insistence on a neutral Ukraine.

Putin’s apparent willingness to engage with Trump could signal a strategic calculation to explore a diplomatic off-ramp amid mounting international pressure and the costly toll of the conflict. However, any proposed ceasefire deal would likely face intense scrutiny and resistance from Kyiv and its Western backers, particularly if it is perceived as rewarding Russian aggression or undermining Ukraine’s long-term security.

Ukraine has launched a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict with Russia, employing U.S.-supplied long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike targets deep within Russian territory. The attack has sparked global concerns about the potential for further escalation, with fears of World War III briefly dominating discussions on social media platforms like X.

According to U.S. and Ukrainian officials, the pre-dawn strike on Tuesday targeted an ammunition depot in Russia’s Bryansk region. This marked the first known use of ATACMS missiles by Ukraine against Russian soil.

• Impact and Damage: Russia’s Ministry of Defence claimed that its air defences intercepted five of the six missiles fired, with one successfully hitting a military facility, causing a fire.
• Target Details: Andrii Kovalenko, a member of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, confirmed the strike targeted warehouses containing artillery ammunition, including munitions reportedly supplied by North Korea.

The missile strike came just two days after U.S. President Joe Biden approved the use of ATACMS by Ukraine, a decision that marked a significant shift in U.S. policy.

• Ukraine’s Pleas Answered: Ukraine had been lobbying for months for access to ATACMS, arguing they were essential for hitting high-value military targets deeper in Russian-controlled territory.
• Policy Shift: The Biden administration’s previous reluctance gave way as reports surfaced of North Korean troops and supplies aiding Russia, prompting a more aggressive stance from the U.S.

The deployment of these long-range missiles has heightened fears of an expanded conflict, with Russian officials issuing stern warnings in response.

• Nuclear Concerns: Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly lowered the threshold for nuclear weapons use in retaliation, signalling the seriousness with which Moscow views the strike.
• Kremlin Reaction: Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, declared that Biden’s decision “escalates tensions to a qualitatively new level.”
• NATO Implications: Given the technical complexity of ATACMS launches, which often require coordination with U.S. military assets, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested the attack could be interpreted as an act of war by NATO itself.

On social media, speculation about World War III trended almost immediately after news of the strike broke. The use of ATACMS is being viewed as a significant turning point, with some fearing that the conflict could spiral into a broader international war.

This bold action by Ukraine underscores the high stakes of the war and the shifting dynamics of international alliances. While Kyiv celebrates the success of its mission, the global community braces for the Kremlin’s next move in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment.

A Current Affair

One decade after surviving an IED explosion in Afghanistan, three Aussie war veterans have been reunited with the armoured vehicle that saved their lives.

ED: From my inbox … author’s name withheld on request.

Efforts to implement meaningful cultural change within the Australian Defence Force (ADF) and the Department of Defence have long been fraught with challenges. Despite multiple strategies and inquiries, progress remains inconsistent, and systemic issues continue to hinder reform.

A History of Initiatives

In 2012, the Pathway to Change 2012–2017 strategy was introduced in response to significant cultural failings within Defence, including issues with the treatment of women, alcohol misuse, and inappropriate use of social media. Acknowledging harmful elements within its culture that limited performance and damaged reputation, the strategy outlined 175 recommendations from independent reviews, all of which Defence claimed to have “addressed.”

The subsequent Pathway to Change – Evolving Defence Culture 2017–2022 sought to build on earlier reforms, with Defence asserting the continued relevance of cultural change to sustain public trust and meet government objectives. However, a damning 2021 report from the Australian National Audit Office revealed glaring shortcomings. It found that Defence lacked effective monitoring and reporting mechanisms, preventing assurance that intended outcomes were being achieved.

Leadership and Accountability

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles has joined a series of defence ministers critical of Defence leadership. Earlier this year, he described cultural issues within leadership as a barrier to achieving “a culture of absolute excellence.” Marles also highlighted the detrimental effects of frequent ministerial turnover during the previous government, describing it as a “revolving door” that destabilized morale and hindered progress.

According to Associate Professor James Connor of UNSW Canberra, the rapid turnover of defence ministers exacerbates the problem. Ministers often depend heavily on the department and the ADF for expertise, making sustained reform difficult. Connor argues that Defence frequently employs delaying tactics, including accepting recommendations “in principle” and waiting for new inquiries to overshadow earlier ones.

Ongoing Failures and Lessons Unlearned

The recent Royal Commission into Defence and Veteran Suicide underscored Defence’s longstanding resistance to reform. Its final report pointed to the failure of successive governments, the ADF, and associated agencies to implement necessary changes or adequately address the needs of those who serve. Despite over 750 recommendations from prior inquiries, the commission found that meaningful reform remains elusive.

Connor, who testified at the commission, noted that many of its recommendations echo those from a 2004 Senate inquiry into military justice, which called for external oversight of military conduct. “Twenty years later, the same problems persist,” he said. He emphasized the need for accountability, questioning the absence of consequences for senior officers failing to enact required reforms.

The Way Forward

The commission’s findings further highlight systemic issues within Defence leadership, including abuse of power and the perpetuation of toxic subcultures. Frequent rotations of senior officers enable leaders to avoid responsibility, while entrenched behaviours hinder genuine reform.

Connor advocates for increased civilian oversight to ensure sustained accountability and to break the cycle of inaction. Without robust mechanisms to hold leaders accountable, meaningful cultural change in Defence remains a distant goal.

As Defence grapples with the weight of repeated failures, the question remains: how long will it take for the institution to learn from its past and implement the reforms necessary to protect its people and its reputation?