Putin’s Plans to Flex His Nuclear Muscles Didn’t Go as Planned

The Krakow Post

Recent satellite images have revealed a significant setback for Russia’s military ambitions, particularly in the realm of nuclear deterrence. At the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, a massive crater approximately 200 feet wide now sits as stark evidence of what appears to be a failed test of Russia’s most modern intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Sarmat, also ominously known as the Satan II. This test, meant to showcase the formidable strength of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, seems to have backfired, casting doubt on the Kremlin’s military prowess.

Satellite imagery captured on September 19 shows the destruction left by what is widely believed to be a missile explosion shortly after launch. The images depict the catastrophic aftermath at the launch site, with visible damage extending across a significant portion of the area. Earlier satellite images of the site show no such damage, suggesting that the failure occurred quite recently, leaving analysts convinced of a major malfunction in the Sarmat missile program.

The damage suggests that the missile exploded in the silo, a dangerous failure that marks a significant blow to the credibility of Russia’s ICBM program. This development stands in stark contrast to President Putin’s previous declarations of the Sarmat being a near-invincible weapon that could carry multiple nuclear warheads with a range of 11,000 miles, capable of reaching targets anywhere across the globe.

Military analysts have already begun weighing in on the implications of this failed test. George Barros, a specialist at the Institute for the Study of War, called it an “informational victory for Ukraine.” For a country already under intense scrutiny due to its aggressive actions in Ukraine, the visible failure of one of its most advanced weapons is both an embarrassment and a loss of strategic face.

Pavel Podvig, another prominent arms control analyst, has observed that test notifications were likely either scrubbed or cancelled after the explosion. According to Podvig, this could indicate that the test did not go as planned from the outset, further underscoring the possibility of deeper systemic problems within Russia’s missile development programs.

The Sarmat ICBM program has long been touted as one of Russia’s crown jewels of military technology, but it has faced persistent development problems. While designed to be a key component of Russia’s future nuclear deterrent, the program has suffered repeated delays, likely worsened by international sanctions and the financial strain facing the Russian economy. The sanctions imposed by Western nations in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have significantly hampered the country’s ability to procure advanced materials and technologies, leading to increased failures and an unreliable testing schedule for the Sarmat missile.

Unsurprisingly, the Kremlin has so far been tight-lipped about the explosion. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, when asked about the incident, stated that they had “no information” regarding the test failure, deferring any further questions to Russia’s military. This silence is in line with Russia’s typical handling of military embarrassments—swiftly deflecting, denying, or downplaying failures that undermine its image as a global superpower.

President Putin has previously bragged about the Sarmat’s capability to bypass missile defence systems and deliver devastation to enemies, yet this recent failure casts significant doubt on those claims. The silence from the Kremlin only adds to the growing questions about the state of Russia’s military-industrial complex and its ability to maintain its status as a nuclear power in the modern era.

The explosion at Plesetsk Cosmodrome is a stark reminder of the challenges Russia faces in maintaining its military ambitions in the face of economic pressure and global isolation. The failed test not only represents a technological and strategic setback but also a symbolic defeat for Russia as it struggles to assert dominance on the world stage.

For now, the world is left wondering how many more setbacks Russia’s nuclear program can endure before its claims of military prowess are brought into serious question.

 

I know it’s not Friday!

1. Light travels faster than sound.  This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.

2. A fine is a tax for doing wrong.  A tax is a fine for doing well.

3. He who laughs last, thinks slowest.

4.  A day without sunshine is like, well, night.

5.  Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine.

6. Those who live by the sword get shot by those who don’t.

8. The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there’s a 90% probability you’ll get it wrong. 

9. It is said that if you line up all the cars in the world end-to-end, someone from Florida would be stupid enough to try to pass them.

10. If the shoe fits, get another one just like it.

11. The things that come to those who wait, may be the things left by those who got there first.

12. Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he will sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

13. Flashlight: A case for holding dead batteries.

14. God gave you toes as a device for finding furniture in the dark.

15. When you go into court, you are putting yourself in the hands of twelve people, who weren’t smart enough to get out of jury duty.  

 

OOPS – Sorry about the security outage

Sorry about the security message and action that blocked you all from Frontline … our security certificate expired due to a simple mix up in the payment date … all paid and fixed and totally secure.

If you missed any posts, you can go to the website www.frontline.asn.au and hit news and they’ll be there to read.

Cheers

Ray

The Champion Shot Medal

Copied from 1RAR Facebook

The Champion Shots Medal was established on the 13th September 1988 to build on an extended history of rewarding skill in military marksmanship. Since pre Federation, informal and formal shooting awards were given across military units for local and international competitions. The creation of the Champion Shot Medal sought to standardise the recognition of these awards, bringing together the legacy of marksmanship excellence under one prestigious medal.

The Governor-General makes the awards on the recommendation of the Chief of the Defence Force or the Chief’s delegate. No more than three medals can be awarded in each calendar year. If the same person receives a further Champion Shots award it is in the form of a date bar, which is attached to the ribbon of the original award.

The medal may be awarded to only 1 person from each of the service branches after competing in the Australian Army Skill At Arms Meeting (ASSAM).

ASSAM:

The Australian Army Skill at Arms Meeting (AASAM) is a combat focused skill at arms competition that encompasses current in-service small arms systems, competed at individual and unit levels. The competition is designed to allow for the assessment of current in-service small arms system capabilities, equipment and targetry, and training analysis of combat shooting techniques, weapon training doctrine, and small arms practices. AASAM identifies the best combat marksmen for selection in the Australian Army Combat Shooting Team (AACST), to represent the Australian Army at overseas international skill at arms competitions. The Champion Shot of the Army, Navy and Airforce is also contested.

AASAM consists of four major components:

– An Open Sniper Competition, where Army and International sniper pairs compete against each other,

– The Champion Shot of the Army, Navy and Air Force, where Top marksmen compete to be recognised as the top shot,

– Individual and Team events, where up to 14 teams from Forces Command, and unit teams across the Army, Navy and Air Force compete against each other,

– The international competition where up to 20 International Teams compete.

A number of 1 RAR soldiers have competed and won the champion shot medal, along with the 1 RAR team often dominating the shooting competition.

“Nuclear is definitely cheaper than renewables” Nuclear Expert Tony Irwin

Tony Irwin is a nuclear engineer and technical director at SMR Nuclear Technology, an Australian company. He spent three decades in the UK commissioning and operating nuclear reactors for British Energy, before emigrating to Australia in 1999. Irwin joined the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), where he worked for ten years. He currently chairs the Nuclear Engineering Panel of Engineers Australia and lectures on nuclear science at both the Australian National University and the University of Sydney.

He has a solid understanding of nuclear power, including its underlying science, safety measures, and its potential as a sustainable energy source. He’s knowledgeable about how nuclear reactors work, the types of reactors, the challenges of waste management, and the advancements in nuclear technology. He recognizes nuclear energy as a viable solution to reduce carbon emissions and believes in its potential to provide a reliable, large-scale power supply, while acknowledging public concerns and the importance of stringent safety protocols.

Vale Raymond Deed – 3 RAR Korean War and Vietnam AATTV (25/04/1927 – 19/09/2024)

Dear Korea Veterans, Widows, Families, Friends and Supporters,

This is sad but inevitable news I have received from Michael, Son of Ray Deed, 3 RAR Korean War and Vietnam AATTV:

 

“…. my father Raymond Deed passed away peacefully on 19 September 2024 13:36 at Canossa Private Hospital, Oxley.
… A Memorial Service will be held in his honour
On Friday 27 September
At St Joseph’s Church, 624 Oxley Road, Corinda QLD 4075.
Time is yet be finalised but service will be around 11:00.
Service will be followed by a Reception at the Sherwood Indooroopilly  RSL Sub-Branch afterwards.

Notices will be published as soon as timing is finalised.”

I copy below a posting of Ipswich RSL Sub Branch Facebook:
“VALE
Raymond Deed joined the Australian Army and was assigned to the 3rd Battalion, The Royal Australian Regiment (3 RAR).

Raymond served 292 days in Korea from 28 September 1950, when the Australians arrived at Pusan, through to 16 July 1951. He attained the rank of sergeant and retained vivid memories of his war service.

At Kapyong, Raymond recalled many of the Chinese prisoners captured in Korea acted as if they were ‘happy to be taken’. One prisoner showed him a photograph of his family, which got Raymond to thinking that the enemy were no different to himself.

He also remembered the tragic and heartbreaking sight of refugees, loaded up with all their meagre possessions and heading south away from the fighting.

The memory that haunted him most, though, was of watching a boy of about 10 walking down a road to cross a bridge that was about to be destroyed by United States (US) Army engineers. Raymond was in a concealed position and could only watch on in horror, counting the boy’s steps as the seconds wound down. The bridge exploded as the boy began to cross. He was blown up and into the river below, where he was apparently rescued alive by the US troops.

Raymond would later serve in Vietnam, where he was Mentioned in Dispatches.
The 31st Infantry Battalion Association has the sad duty to advise you of the passing of our Oldest Member, – Soldier Hero, – Our Mentor in all things Army, – Our Great Mate, – Great Family Man, – True Blue Aussie. – WO1 Ray “Dasher” Deed BEM MID. Dasher died peacefully, surrounded by Family, in the afternoon of Thursday 19th Sept.
Ray was a member of Sherwood RSL Sub Branch. Our thoughts are with Ray’s Family and friends at this sad time.
Lest We Forget”

Thank you and Kindest regards,

 

Yang Kim
0419 919 034
[email protected]

Putin’s Push for a Massive Army Reveals Deepening Russian Struggles

The Krakow Post

Russian President Vladimir Putin may aim to build one of the world’s largest armies, but his ambition could ultimately expose the deeper flaws within Russia’s military. Despite his plans to expand his forces to 1.5 million troops, the ongoing war in Ukraine has demonstrated that sheer numbers are not enough to secure battlefield victories.

When Putin launched his so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine, Russia’s army held a substantial numerical advantage. Russian forces outnumbered Ukraine’s by roughly three to one, and they had a significant edge in critical military assets like combat aircraft, tanks, and warships. Yet, despite these advantages, Russia has struggled to make decisive gains, while Ukraine has mounted a resilient and effective defence.

One of Ukraine’s most remarkable achievements has been its ability to push back Russian advances and even gain territory within Russia—a feat Moscow hasn’t experienced since World War II. The Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, a cornerstone of Russian naval power, has been effectively neutralized by Ukrainian forces. Meanwhile, Russia has suffered staggering casualties, with estimates of over 350,000 troops killed or wounded since the conflict began, according to U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.

These figures are a stark contrast to Russia’s previous military engagements. For example, during the Soviet Union’s 10-year war in Afghanistan, 15,000 troops died in total—nowhere near the scale of losses Russia is currently enduring in Ukraine. In today’s conflict, Putin faces a shrinking pool of recruits limited to the Russian Federation, making it harder for him to both hide the mounting casualties and replace fallen soldiers with fresh conscripts.

In response, Putin has called for a dramatic increase in Russia’s military size. A recent decree published by the Kremlin outlines his plan to boost the total number of armed forces to 2.38 million, with 1.5 million active servicemen. This would make Russia’s military the second largest in the world, trailing only China. However, this move seems less a strategic initiative and more a desperate attempt to compensate for Russia’s battlefield failures.

This is not the first time Putin has attempted mass mobilization. In September 2022, following a series of Ukrainian counteroffensives that recaptured key cities like Kharkiv and Kherson, Putin announced a wave of conscriptions. Rather than strengthening the Russian military, these drafts caused widespread discontent. Approximately one million Russian men of fighting age fled the country, unwilling to be sacrificed in what many see as a futile war.

The disillusionment among ordinary Russians is growing as the scale of losses becomes more apparent. Putin’s military relies on outdated and brutal tactics, often sending poorly trained conscripts into the fray with little chance of success. With the war’s frontlines stretching over 300 miles and no major territorial gains in recent months, the Kremlin faces a growing challenge in recruiting new soldiers for its seemingly endless campaign.

Despite bolstering its ranks, the Russian military has made little headway. Western observers have noted that Russia’s forces have grown by around 15% since the war began, but this has not translated into significant battlefield success. Gains in eastern Ukraine have been limited, and the Russian military’s performance remains underwhelming.

Putin’s efforts to expand the military point to a larger issue: Russia’s failure to adapt. While Ukraine has focused on building well-trained, agile forces capable of launching effective offensives, Russia continues to rely on mass conscription and overwhelming numbers. Ukraine’s recent successes, including their offensive near Kursk, highlight the importance of strategy, mobility, and discipline over sheer manpower.

In the end, Putin’s desire for a vast military may offer him some political consolation, but it does little to address the underlying problems within his armed forces. A large army is of little use if it cannot effectively engage a smaller, more determined adversary like Ukraine. Russia’s struggle to achieve its objectives in this conflict is a reminder that modern warfare requires more than just numbers—it demands innovation, strategy, and the will to adapt.

 

 

US Expands Military Presence in Asia-Pacific Amid Strategic Competition with China

Milblog

A recent study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) highlights the significant disparity between the US and China in terms of combined military exercises conducted in the Asia-Pacific over the past two decades. From 2003 to 2022, the US led 1,113 exercises, compared to just 128 by China. Key military partners in these exercises include Australia, India, and Indonesia.

This focus on joint military operations coincides with Australia’s increased collaboration with Indonesia, formalizing a major defence pact last month. Indonesia has been involved in Australia’s biennial Exercise Pitch Black for nearly a decade, with a more prominent role this year. Despite these collaborations, Indonesia maintains a non-aligned stance, balancing relationships with the US, China, and Russia to foster regional stability and economic development. Concerns linger in Jakarta about potential disruptions to critical trade routes like the Strait of Malacca, driven by rising tensions between global powers.

In parallel, Australia has expanded its military infrastructure and exercises with the US, particularly in northern regions like the Northern Territory. These areas host large-scale exercises such as Pitch Black, Talisman Sabre, and others, involving forces from numerous nations. The US has also ramped up its military presence, including significant investments in expanding Australian bases, increasing rotations of US Marines, and potentially involving Japanese troops.

The growing military cooperation between Australia and the US is strategically important, as both countries focus on maintaining regional stability amid the geopolitical competition between the US and China. Australia’s 2024 National Defence Strategy underscores this by identifying US-China strategic rivalry as a key influence on the region’s security environment.

US military officials emphasize adapting tactics to the unique geography of the Indo-Pacific, with potential hotspots like the South China Sea influencing strategic preparations and capabilities across the region.

Australia may transfer 59 decommissioned M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine

SMH  

Ukraine is in urgent need of military equipment to fend off Russia’s ongoing invasion, and although many democracies have stepped up with aid, the assistance remains insufficient given the overwhelming size and firepower of the Russian forces. Australia may soon take a significant step to help, with a potential transfer of 59 decommissioned M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, a move that could make a substantial difference in the fight.

Australian Tanks and Military Aid: A Critical Opportunity

The Australian government is actively exploring the possibility of transferring these tanks to Ukraine rather than scrapping them. This comes after a public outcry over Australia’s destruction of 47 Taipan helicopters in early 2024, despite requests from Ukraine to receive them. The decision drew criticism from Ukrainian diaspora groups and several political figures, who argued that the equipment could have bolstered Ukraine’s defence efforts.

These M1A1 Abrams tanks, retired from service in July 2024, have never seen combat and are still in excellent condition. They were initially brought into service in 2004, and with a healthy stockpile of spare parts, they remain highly capable despite their age. If transferred to Ukraine, these tanks could significantly enhance the country’s ground defence capabilities, especially in its pushback against Russian forces in contested regions.

Navigating the Transfer Process

Ukraine has officially requested these tanks from Australia. However, since the M1A1 Abrams is an American-made combat vehicle, the transfer is subject to U.S. export control regulations. This means Australia cannot simply hand over the tanks; it must first secure approval from the United States. Talks between Australian and U.S. officials are ongoing, and there is hope that the transfer will be greenlit, especially given the increasing international pressure to provide Ukraine with heavier weaponry.

The potential transfer of these tanks symbolizes not only a tangible boost to Ukraine’s military assets but also the broader geopolitical effort to support Ukraine’s sovereignty against Russian aggression. If approved, this move would mark a significant shift in Australia’s contributions to the global coalition backing Ukraine, potentially serving as a catalyst for other countries to follow suit with similar heavy arms donations.

Looking Ahead: Will Australia Step Up?

While Australian assistance to Ukraine thus far has been significant, particularly in humanitarian and financial aid, the provision of military equipment like the Abrams tanks would demonstrate a much more robust commitment to Ukraine’s defence. The outcome of these discussions could also influence other nations currently debating sending military hardware to Ukraine.

With the global focus on strengthening Ukraine’s defences against a more powerful aggressor, the decisions made in Canberra and Washington in the coming weeks will likely have lasting consequences on the battlefield and for the future of international support for Ukraine.

 SourceThe Sydney Morning Herald