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Australia’s lack of self-sufficiency in manufacturing and essential supplies is a serious vulnerability in the event of a major global conflict, particularly if supply routes were cut off. The country’s reliance on imported goods—especially fuel, military hardware, and essential components—would make it extremely difficult to rapidly scale up war production. Here’s an overview of the major concerns:

1. Fuel Supply & Refining Capability

• Australia only has about 90 days of fuel reserves, which is dangerously low in a wartime scenario.
• We import over 90% of our refined fuel, mostly from Asia. If supply routes were disrupted, fuel for military and civilian use would be in crisis.
• Australia shut down most of its refineries, leaving only two (Ampol in Brisbane and Viva Energy in Geelong). If these were targeted or ran out of crude oil, we’d be in serious trouble.
• Without fuel, military operations (ships, aircraft, vehicles) would be severely limited, and even domestic transport, agriculture, and industry would grind to a halt.

2. Shipbuilding & Naval Strength

• We lack large-scale shipbuilding capacity—most of our Navy’s vessels are built overseas or rely on imported parts.
• Australia’s merchant fleet is tiny, meaning we have almost no capacity to move goods independently.
• With most of our trade coming by sea, a blockade would devastate supplies of essential goods.
• The Royal Australian Navy has a relatively small fleet, and while we have submarines and surface ships, they rely on foreign maintenance and parts.

3. Aircraft Manufacturing & Air Force Readiness

• Australia no longer manufactures military aircraft. The days of producing the CAC Boomerang (WWII) or the Nomad (1970s) are long gone.
• Our F-35s, Super Hornets, and other aircraft rely on imported parts—without resupply, maintenance would become impossible.
• We don’t have the ability to rapidly produce drones or fighter aircraft to replenish losses.
• If fuel is in short supply, the RAAF’s effectiveness would be further compromised.

4. Weapons & Ammunition Production

• The Australian Defence Force depends heavily on imported weapons, ammunition, and missiles.
• While there are some local manufacturers (e.g., Thales produces small arms ammunition in Benalla), Australia lacks large-scale munitions production.
• Missiles and high-tech weaponry are almost entirely imported, meaning we’d quickly run out of advanced weaponry.
• Scaling up defence manufacturing would take years, requiring foreign expertise, equipment, and supply chains that might be unavailable in wartime.

5. Clothing & General Manufacturing

• Australia no longer has a large textile industry, meaning military uniforms and boots are largely imported.
• The car industry shut down, which means no domestic ability to mass-produce military vehicles.
• General manufacturing capability is nowhere near what it was during WWII, when Australia produced aircraft, tanks, and ammunition domestically.

6. Food Security & Agriculture

• Australia is a food exporter, which is a strength, but:
  • Fertilizers and chemicals for farming are mostly imported.
  • Diesel shortages would cripple food production and transport.
  • Machinery parts and tractors are foreign made, so breakdowns would lead to serious agricultural disruptions.
  • With most of the population in cities, food distribution could be a major issue.

7. Skilled Workforce & Industrial Base

• The loss of industrial skills due to decades of outsourcing would make it difficult to quickly ramp up war production.
• Training a new generation of tradespeople, machinists, and engineers takes time.
• The reliance on foreign expertise for advanced manufacturing (e.g., submarines, aircraft) would leave us struggling without outside support.

8. Cyber & Energy Vulnerabilities

• Australia imports much of its high-tech military equipment, including electronic warfare systems and guidance technology.
• The country has limited energy resilience—we import components for power grids and rely on overseas supply chains for things like semiconductors.
• Cybersecurity threats could cripple military and civilian infrastructure.

Historical Comparison: WWII vs. Today

• During WWII, Australia had a strong industrial base, producing aircraft, ships, and armaments.
• Today, almost all manufacturing has been outsourced, meaning we don’t have the infrastructure or supply chains in place to repeat that effort.
• Rebuilding wartime industry would take years, not months—by the time production ramped up, the war could be lost.

Conclusion: Australia is in a Dangerous Position

If global supply chains were cut due to a major conflict, Australia would struggle to sustain military and civilian needs. Unlike WWII, when we had a strong industrial base, we now rely almost entirely on imports for fuel, weapons, and critical supplies.

To address this, Australia would need:

• Strategic fuel reserves and domestic refining capacity.
• A revived manufacturing sector, particularly in defence industries.
• A stronger merchant fleet for self-sufficient shipping.
• Increased local food production and distribution resilience.
• More investment in cyber defence and high-tech weaponry.

At present, Australia is unprepared for a long war without external support. If major powers like the US were distracted by their own conflicts, Australia would face severe shortages in fuel, weapons, and manufacturing capability, making national defence incredibly difficult.

Written and Researched by Ray Payne OAM – March 2025

Media Release

The Australian Defence Force (ADF) is continuing its 2025 Regional Presence Deployment program with the departure of HMAS Sydney from Fleet Base East in Sydney. Over a three-month period, HMAS Sydney will participate in training and cooperation activities, including Exercise Bersama Shield alongside Five Power Defence Arrangements nations: Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United Kingdom.

Australian Defence Force Regional Presence Deployments involve visits throughout the Indo-Pacific region, focusing on exercises and cooperative activities with partner nations. These deployments reinforce cooperation between Australia and regional partners, demonstrating Australia’s ongoing commitment to regional security, stability, and the promotion of a peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific region. They also highlight Australia’s contribution to maintaining the global rules-based order in accordance with international law.

Australian vessels and aircraft will continue to exercise their rights to freedom of navigation and overflight under international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The first Regional Presence Deployment for 2025 was recently completed by HMAS Hobart, which conducted training exercises and activities with Indonesia, France, and the Philippines.

HMAS Sydney is one of three Hobart-class air warfare destroyers in service, with a crew of more than 200 personnel and an embarked MH-60R Seahawk helicopter. The crew remains dedicated to mission readiness as they embark on this deployment, which coincides with the fifth anniversary of the ship’s commissioning into service with the Navy in May.

This Regional Presence Deployment will conclude in early July 2025.

The Australian’s Foreign Editor Greg Sheridan has slammed the government’s handling of national security, calling it a “joke” and warning that the country’s defence force is in a state of disarray. Mr Sheridan’s remarks come as Labor has wiped the funding for 5,000 Australian Defence Force personnel as a way to offset years of failure to meet recruitment targets. He argued that the government’s claims of improving the recruitment process are not enough and that the country’s defence force is still severely undermanned.

ED: After you read these, you’ll probably be glad I’m going on holidays 

A little boy was staring in wonder at the names on a plaque in an old church. The pastor noticed him and asked, “What are you looking at, my son?”

The boy replied, “All those names up there. Who are they?”

The pastor smiled and said, “Why, they are the names of people from this congregation who died in the service.”

The little boy thought for a moment and then asked very quietly, “Which one? The 9:00 or the 11:00 service?”

Joke #2

After 35 years, General Green retired from the Army to fulfill his dream of bird hunting in his spare time. He got a new hunting dog and named it “Sarge.” The dog was incredible at pointing, flushing, and retrieving. General Green’s friends were so jealous that they offered huge amounts of cash to buy Sarge. But the general always refused, proudly saying that Sarge was the best bird dog he’d ever owned and that he couldn’t part with him for any price.

A year later, one of General Green’s friends visited and was surprised to find that he was breaking in a new dog.

Fearing the worst, the friend asked, “What happened to good old Sarge?”

The General looked sad. “I had to shoot him. My wife kept calling him Colonel, and pretty soon all the dog would do is sit on his ass and bark.”

Joke #3

An off-duty soldier took a train. When the train reached its first stop, a general walked in, and the soldier stood up. The General said, “At ease soldier, sit down.” The train reached its second stop, again the soldier stood up, and the General once again said, “At ease soldier, sit down.” When the train reached its third stop, again, the soldier stood up. This time, the General looked at him and said, “You don’t have to salute every time we reach a stop.” The soldier replied, “I want to get off, I missed my stop 2 stations ago.”

Joke #4

A soldier shows up for military training but realizes he forgot to bring his gun.

The sergeant hands him a stick and gestures to the training field.

“You’ll have to use this, soldier. If you need to shoot someone, just aim your stick at them and shout ‘Bangity bang-bang’. If someone gets too close to you, poke them in the gut with it as though it was a bayonette and shout ‘Stabbity stab-stab’. Now get moving.”

The soldier thinks this is pretty ridiculous, but to his surprise, when he aims his stick at a fellow trainee across the field and shouts “Bangity bang-bang!” the other soldier goes down in a theatrical display. Then, another trainee tries to run past him, so he pokes the guy in the ribs and shouts “Stabbity stab-stab!” and he too goes down, pretending to be dead.

So, the soldier starts running through the mock-battlefield, shouting “Bangity bang-bang” and occasionally “Stabbity-stab-stab”, until eventually, he realizes he’s the last man standing.

He’s feeling pretty proud of himself until another soldier rounds a corner and starts walking toward him. Slowly. Stiffly. Menacingly.

The soldier takes aim with his stick and shouts, “Bangity-bang-bang!”

But the other soldier doesn’t go down this time. He keeps approaching, arms stiff at his sides, boots stomping aggressively into the ground.

The soldier begins to sweat. He clears his throat, adjusts grip on his stick and hollers, “Bangity bang-bang!”

But nothing happens. The other soldier keeps marching toward him.

Now the soldier panics. He pretends to reload his stick and desperately cries out, “Bangity bang-bang! Bangity bang-bang! Stabbity stab-stab!”

But to his dismay, nothing works.

Finally, the other soldier reaches him, kicks him in the shin and knocks him onto the ground.

He stands over the fallen soldier and says:

“Tankity tank-tank.”

The Times

Iran has once again showcased its military capabilities by revealing an underground missile facility through state media. The dramatic video, featuring high-ranking military officials Maj. Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri and Amir Ali Hajizadeh, provided a glimpse into the massive subterranean complex. The facility is home to advanced missile systems, including the Kheybar Shekan, Ghadr-H, and Sejjil, reinforcing Iran’s commitment to bolstering its military presence amid escalating regional tensions.

Despite the impressive display, experts have identified a significant vulnerability in the facility’s design. The video footage revealed that the munitions are stored in long, open tunnels with minimal protective measures. Analysts caution that such an arrangement presents a severe risk, as a single breach could trigger a catastrophic chain reaction, destroying the entire stockpile. Unlike other Iranian underground installations, this facility appears to lack robust blast doors or compartmentalised storage, making it more susceptible to targeted strikes.

The timing of Iran’s revelation is also noteworthy. There are indications that the United States is preparing for a major military operation in the region, as it increases its presence at the strategically important Diego Garcia base. Reports suggest that at least five B-2 Spirit bombers and seven C-17 Globemaster III transport planes have either arrived or are en route, signalling a potential shift in the geopolitical landscape.

While Iran’s underground missile facility was intended to project strength and deter adversaries, the exposure of its structural weaknesses may have inadvertently given its rivals a strategic advantage. In the high-stakes arena of modern warfare, even the most formidable fortresses are only as strong as their weakest link.

CLICK LINK to view the video

https://x.com/i/status/1904601230292234308

ED: This from my inbox this morning. One point I noted, most pensioners don’t benefit from tax cuts, but fuel costs benefit all.

ABC News

In his budget reply speech last night, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton sharpened the debate on cost-of-living relief by unveiling a suite of policies aimed at easing financial pressure on Australian families. The centrepiece of his plan is an immediate reduction in fuel excise, contrasting with the government’s tax cuts that are still 18 months away and will amount to only $5 per week for many Australians.

Dutton’s proposal to slash fuel excise by $6 billion would provide direct and swift relief to motorists struggling with rising fuel prices. This initiative sets him apart from the Albanese government’s approach, which centres on a $17.1 billion tax cut that will not take effect until July 2025. With household budgets already under strain, Dutton’s plan offers tangible benefits without the long wait.

In an effort to further reduce living costs, Dutton committed to driving down energy prices by increasing domestic gas supply. His “gas reservation” policy would require gas producers to prioritise the local market, ensuring Australians benefit from the nation’s natural resources. While this move has sparked debate, it aligns with the opposition’s broader strategy to make Australia a global manufacturing and mining powerhouse by cutting excessive red and green tape.

Dutton also outlined a major savings initiative, announcing that he would reverse the government’s decision to hire 41,000 additional public servants. This move, projected to save $7 billion per year once fully implemented, reflects the Coalition’s commitment to fiscal responsibility. However, he has yet to specify a precise timeline for achieving these savings.

In addition to his economic measures, Dutton reaffirmed key policies, including reducing permanent migration by 25 per cent, allowing first-home buyers to access their superannuation, funding critical housing infrastructure, and collaborating with states to tighten knife and bail laws. He assured Australians that health, aged care, veterans’ support, and the NDIS would remain priorities, while military spending would receive a boost to enhance national security.

With cost-of-living pressures dominating the political landscape, Dutton’s budget reply speech presented a clear alternative to the government’s long-term tax strategy. By focusing on immediate relief measures such as the fuel excise cut and energy cost reductions, he positioned himself as an advocate for Australian families seeking rapid financial relief.

Bright and early on Saturday morning, Julie and I, along with three other couples, will be flying to Japan. We will arrive in Tokyo and then travel to Yokohama, where we will embark on the Holland America ship, Noordam, for a fourteen-day cruise around Japan.

During the cruise, we will visit twelve ports. We have timed this trip so that Julie can see the cherry blossoms, which we’ve been told are already in bloom.

After returning to Yokohama, we will spend three days in Tokyo to experience the bullet train before heading home in time for Easter.

Tomorrow (Friday) will be my last post on the website until we return. One of my granddaughters and her partner will be house-sitting. While she is more than capable, I have not asked her to post updates.

Stay safe while I’m away!

Ray & Julie

Washington Post

A newly released intelligence report confirms what many have long suspected: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are coordinating their efforts more closely than ever to undermine US interests globally. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) has released a 30-page threat assessment highlighting these four nations as America’s primary adversaries.

China is identified as the “most capable” threat, using military, economic, and cyber strategies to challenge US dominance. Russia is ramping up its nuclear capabilities while remaining deeply engaged in its war against Ukraine. Iran is supplying drones to Russia and advancing its own weapons programs. Meanwhile, North Korea is providing munitions and troops to Russia, receiving advanced weaponry in return.

China is executing a long-term strategy to replace the US as the world’s dominant superpower. Beijing is expected to increase pressure on Taiwan in 2025 to push for unification. Additionally, it is expanding its territorial claims in the South and East China Seas, directly challenging US allies like Japan and the Philippines. On the technological front, China is heavily investing in artificial intelligence, aiming to surpass the US by 2030.

Russia is making significant advancements in its nuclear capabilities, with President Vladimir Putin determined to cement his legacy by prevailing in Ukraine. Moscow is receiving critical economic and military support from China, Iran, and North Korea to sustain its war efforts. This raises questions about how Putin will approach future ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine and whether external support will prolong the conflict.

Iran is balancing its own military ambitions while providing substantial aid to Russia. Tehran has become a key supplier of drones to Moscow, enhancing Russia’s battlefield capabilities. At the same time, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is at record highs, though it has not officially restarted its nuclear weapons program. There have also been reports of seismic activity near Iran’s nuclear sites, which some believe could be indicative of clandestine operations.

North Korea is leveraging its growing partnership with Russia to reduce its dependence on China. Pyongyang has sent troops and munitions to Russia, receiving advanced military technology in return. This relationship not only strengthens North Korea’s military capabilities but also enhances its ability to challenge US interests in the region.

As these four nations deepen their cooperation, the geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex. The growing alignment between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea presents a multifaceted challenge for the US, requiring a strategic and coordinated response to counter their collective efforts.

By Ray Payne OAM

The latest budget announcement does not provide the necessary funding to strengthen Australia’s defence forces despite growing global threats. Instead of making significant investments in national security, the government is shifting a modest $1 billion over the next few years, mostly towards submarines and missiles. This small funding adjustment does little to improve the readiness and sustainability of the current defence force.

The total funding for Defence, the Australian Signals Directorate, and the Australian Submarine Agency in 2025–26 is estimated at $58.99 billion, an increase of 4.2 percent from the previous year. However, after accounting for inflation, the real increase is only 3.2 percent. This is not enough, especially considering the government itself has stated that Australia is facing its most serious security challenges since World War II.

A closer look at the budget shows that the government is still not prioritising the readiness of existing defence forces. While there is some extra funding to maintain the F-35 Lightning jets and Collins-class submarines, there is little change in overall maintenance, usage, and workforce support. This lack of investment weakens the immediate effectiveness of Australia’s military.

This budget is a missed opportunity to strengthen national security. It does not show a strong commitment to defence, risks damaging relationships with key international allies, and discourages investment from the defence industry. Without clear signals from the government that it is serious about strengthening Australia’s defence capabilities, local industries will continue to face delays and uncertainty.

In the end, the government’s failure to prioritise defence funding leaves Australia unprepared for future threats. While successive governments have acknowledged the growing security risks, this budget does little to ensure that Australia has a strong and ready defence force. The government must recognise that its top responsibility is to protect the nation and take action by providing proper and timely funding for defence.

Photo: The MC-55A taking flight. (L3Harris photo)

The Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) is set to receive a new multi-mission intelligence aircraft, the MC-55A Peregrine, this year. Prime contractor L3Harris is finalising developmental work after delays in the program.

The MC-55A is a modified version of the Gulfstream G550, part of a global trend of equipping business jets with advanced military systems. Australia procured four aircraft through the US Air Force’s foreign military sales process in 2019. However, the project has faced setbacks, with initial deliveries anticipated as early as 2023.

L3Harris has stated that the project remains within contractual cost and schedule frameworks, despite the delays. Challenges arose from adjustments to flight parameters and modifications to the aircraft’s structure to accommodate military equipment.

Following certification from the US Federal Aviation Administration in December, the aircraft is now on track for delivery. The Australian Department of Defence has not confirmed an exact timeline but expects the aircraft within the next 12 months.

The MC-55A is designed for strategic intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. Its capabilities include electronic warfare and command and control functions. The RAAF will be the first operator of this specific configuration, which features an extensive suite of sensors and mission systems integrated into a business jet platform.

L3Harris is also pursuing further international sales of the MC-55A. Another foreign military sales customer has reportedly purchased a G550 with similar mission systems, though details remain undisclosed.