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1942: Japanese Submarine I-25 – and its Glen reconnaissance aircraft over: Sydney, Hobart, Wellington, Auckland, Suva and Alaska

In mid-February 1942, a Japanese “mother’ submarine shelled Newcastle, and launched three mini-submarines into Sydney Harbour. On 17 February 1942, a Japanese “mother submarine” – I-25 (captain: Lieutenant Commander Akiji Tagami; 98 crew, 108 metres in length – three times the displacement of a German U-boat), launched a “collapsible” Yokosuka E14Y “Glen” float-plane that overflew parts of Sydney (La Perouse, Botany Bay, North Head – reportedly causing consternation in harbour-side suburbs. The unarmed Glen reconnaissance float-plane had a crew of two, and could be dismantled – broken-down into twelve pieces, and stored on the submarine in four water-tight “hangar “compartments forward of the submarine’s conning tower. Once assembled, it was launched from rails by a catapult or off-loaded by a derrick and took off from the sea-surface. Its mission was reconnaissance of enemy naval vessels – principally seeking warships of the US Navy.

From the Sydney area, the I-25 submarine sailed south into Bass Strait and anchored off Cape Wickham (King Island). On 26 February 1942, the Glen aircraft (pilot: Warrant Flying Officer Nobuo Fujita; observer/gunner Shoji Okuda, was launched and overflew Point Lonsdale, Geelong, Laverton and Melbourne (see the earlier item for detail on this three-hour flight over Victorian objectives). Leaving Bass Strait, the I-25 sailed on the surface down the east coast of Tasmania to Great Oyster Bay – the Bay is about 35 km long by 15 km wide and is protected by the red granite cliffs and steep headlands of the Freycinet Peninsula and Schouten Island. The Glen float-plane was placed onto the sea by I-25’s derrick – ie not launched from the submarine’s catapult. Flying up the Derwent River and overflying Hobart and the Mount Wellington area, some activity was noted – including five cargo ships but no warships. The Glen aircraft later did flights from the I-25 over Wellington (8 March 1942),

Auckland (13 March) and Suva (17 March) – before returning to its base at Kwajalein in the Marianas/Marshal Islands. In a subsequent mission by the I-25 on 9 September 1942, its Glen float-plane dropped two incendiary bombs into the forests of Oregon (US) in attempts to create forest fires. According to Wikipedia, this was the only time that the mainland United States was ever bombed by enemy aircraft – and the second continental territory to be bombed as such during wartime, ie after the bombing raid on Dutch Harbor in Unalaska (Alaska) by aircraft from two Japanese aircraft carriers on 3-4 June 1942.

The I-25 was subsequently sunk by US destroyers near Espiroto Santo (Vanuatu) in October 1943 – and all hands were lost.

During his address at the handover ceremony held at Russell Offices, Canberra, former F/A-18 fighter pilot and incoming Vice Chief, Air Marshal Robert Chipman, AO, CSC, expressed a profound sense of pride and duty. Air Marshal Chipman emphasized his commitment to championing all sailors, soldiers, aviators, and Defence public servants. He underscored the importance of supporting the entire Defence community, acknowledging their dedication and sacrifices.

Air Marshal Chipman also pledged to implement the learnings from the Royal Commission into Defence and Veteran Suicide. He stressed the need for continuous improvement and a strong focus on the well-being of both current and former Defence personnel. His address highlighted his dedication to ensuring that the Australian Defence Force (ADF) remains a supportive and resilient organization, capable of addressing the challenges faced by its members.

Defence Equipment and Support (DE&S) successfully tested Raytheon’s High-Energy Laser Weapon System (HELWS) on a British Army Wolfhound vehicle at Porton Down. This first UK test demonstrated the HELWS’s capability to track and engage targets while mounted on a land vehicle.

The HELWS is designed to counter NATO class 1 drones and integrate seamlessly with existing air defence systems. Raytheon UK’s chief executive, James Gray, highlighted the collaborative effort with British SMEs that enabled the rapid delivery of this technology.

Defence Secretary John Healey emphasized the importance of continuing technological advancements to ensure national security and create skilled jobs. The demonstrator program, managed by Team Hersa, aims to rapidly introduce innovative weapon systems to the UK Armed Forces.

Raytheon’s HELWS has proven combat effectiveness with US forces, logging over 40,000 testing hours and downing more than 400 targets. The next phase involves British Army soldiers familiarizing themselves with the system to refine future capabilities.

Picture: An RCV Light at desert testing. (Original image by Savannah Baldwin/ US Army; Code image by Markus Spiske via Pexels; Graphic by Breaking Defence)

Earlier this year, US Army soldiers tested prototype Robotic Combat Vehicles (RCVs) at Fort Irwin, California. This demonstration highlighted a key issue: the technology currently does not keep human soldiers far enough from danger.

The Army’s long-term goal is for autonomous software to handle most of the navigation for its future robotic fleet. However, since this technological challenge is expected to take years to resolve, the initial RCVs deployed will rely on a radio “tether.”

At Fort Irwin, this setup required five soldiers in a trailing vehicle to control two frontline RCVs. This configuration included one driver and two teams of two, each remotely operating an RCV, and the vehicles had to stay close enough to maintain the radio link. This proximity nearly defeats the purpose of using RCVs to perform dangerous tasks under fire, as envisioned by the Army.

“We need to get [soldiers] a little further back,” said Brig Gen. Geoffrey Norman, then the director of the Next-Generation Combat Vehicle Cross-Functional Team, shortly before retiring earlier this month. “If they’re inside the direct fire range, whether it’s from a cannon, direct fire, or anti-tank guided missiles, those control vehicles are very vulnerable.”

The Army has been aware for several years that its backup teleoperation setup poses technical challenges. Recent demonstrations, including one at this year’s Project Convergence capstone event, highlighted the severity of these challenges as the Army prepares to potentially field RCVs in fiscal 2028. With the future of autonomy unclear, the service is now considering changing mission sets, concepts of operations, and even technical solutions to make the tether work.

Despite these hurdles, Army leadership is determined to press ahead, convinced that field deployment is essential to advancing the development of its robotic fleet.

“It’s our first robot system like this [that] we’re actually going to keep,” Army acquisition head Doug Bush reiterated. “So, I’m not surprised that there’s turbulence in the key technologies, including the radio comm link, which is foundational to the whole thing and having that capability … being robust enough.”

“A ground environment is the hardest thing possible, it’s way harder and way harder on equipment than a [unmanned aerial vehicle] UAV,” Bush added.

It’s unnerving when life imitates art, especially when we witness it unfolding right before our eyes. Coincidences that come true can be both fascinating and frightening.

Back in 1993, Lloyd Bridges, Jim Abrahams, and Pat Proft unknowingly provided a glimpse into the future through their work. Their satirical portrayal in films like “Hot Shots!” offered a sneak preview of the social chaos and leadership challenges America would encounter in 2020. Little did they know how eerily prophetic their comedic depiction would become, reflecting the unexpected realities of a tumultuous year.

The Australian Defence Force (ADF) is among 21 nations contributing to the C-130J Hercules aircraft’s impressive milestone of 3 million flight hours since its first flight on April 5, 1996. The C-130J supports 18 mission types, including combat, transport, medevac, humanitarian relief, search and rescue, weather reconnaissance, and firefighting. This achievement underscores the aircraft’s versatility and reliability.

To bolster its capabilities, the Australian government announced the purchase of 20 new C-130J Hercules for the Royal Australian Air Force, worth $9.8 billion, with the first delivery expected in late 2027. Currently, the ADF employs the C-130J for personnel deployment, equipment transport, humanitarian missions, and search and rescue operations.

Rod McLean of Lockheed Martin praised the crews and partners for their role in maintaining the global Super Hercules fleet’s readiness. Nations contributing to these flight hours include the UK, US, Australia, Italy, and others.

Lockheed Martin Australia also rebranded its STELaRLab as Advanced Systems and Technologies, enhancing its focus on hypersonic, autonomy, robotics, and C4ISR technologies. This initiative aims to strengthen Australia’s defence industry and foster innovation through collaboration with government, academia, and industry.

Recently, Lockheed Martin Australia delivered the first sensor systems for Australia’s Joint Air Battle Management System, AIR 6500, from Silentium Defence. These systems offer advanced 3D covert surveillance capabilities, crucial for modern battlespace awareness. Silentium Defence CEO Dr. James Palmer highlighted the importance of innovative technologies and real-time data for informed decision-making.

Lockheed Martin Australia remains committed to leveraging homegrown technologies to enhance Australia’s national security and defence capabilities.

The Russian Air Force, while experiencing fewer losses compared to ground forces, is in a state of disrepair. The war in Ukraine has accelerated the ongoing degradation of Russian equipment and capabilities, with the industry struggling to replenish these losses. Even before the conflict, the Russian Air Force was on a downward trajectory, relying heavily on aging aircraft. Despite propagandistic claims, Russian design bureaus and factories have been unable to provide adequate replacements for Soviet-era planes.

According to Defence 24 expert Maciej Szopa, out of approximately 1,200 Russian planes in service, 550 are nearing the end of their life cycle. These aircraft, including the Su-24, Su-25, Su-27, MiG-29, and MiG-31, are so worn out from extensive use that they are approaching their structural endurance limits. Ukrainian estimates suggest that Russia operates 300 aircraft of various types daily, indicating that most of its combat fleet is engaged in the conflict.

The real number of combat-ready Russian aircraft is at most 850 units. Of these, about 340-360 aircraft produced after 2010 (including the Su-30, Su-34, Su-35, and Su-57, as well as older strategic bombers) are considered capable of effective combat use in a hypothetical confrontation with NATO countries. Despite this, due to wear and tear, Russia is expected to retire about 60 aircraft this year alone, regardless of combat damage or losses.

In the first half of the year, Ukrainian forces have destroyed at least 12 Russian aircraft, as confirmed by photographic evidence. Meanwhile, Russian industry produced only 27 new combat aircraft in 2022, 24 in 2023, and just six by mid-2024. The number of decommissioned and destroyed aircraft far exceeds the production capacity of Russian industry, leading to a systematic decline in the Russian Air Force’s capabilities.

Current Composition and Future Challenges Australia’s special operations units, including the SASR, Commando Regiments, Special Operations Engineer Regiment, Navy’s Clearance Diving Teams, and the Air Force’s Joint Terminal/Close Combat Attack Controller teams, form a highly capable but disparate force. These units have excelled in counter-insurgency operations over the past three decades. However, emerging threats from peer and near-peer competitors necessitate a strategic overhaul to maintain our edge.

In response to the rise of great power competition in the Indo-Pacific, a comprehensive restructuring of Australia’s special operations forces is essential. This involves:

• Creating Special Operations Command as an independent branch, enhancing its capability to operate across multiple domains.
• Expanding the Army’s special operations by establishing new Raider regiments to disrupt enemy operations behind lines, complementing the SASR and evolving Commando regiments.
• Transforming the Navy’s Clearance Diving Teams into a maritime-focused special operations force, akin to the UK’s Special Boat Service.
• Reshaping the Air Force’s No. 4 Squadron into a Special Tactics Squadron for special operations aeromedical support, while consolidating and expanding special operations aviation squadrons to provide dedicated airlift and close air support.

An expanded Special Operations Support Squadron will handle recruiting, training, and supporting logistics, signals, intelligence, and cyber warfare capacities, ensuring a robust and integrated force.

This strategic overhaul aims to position Australia’s special operations forces to respond swiftly and effectively to future regional and global challenges, maintaining our 4o national security and competitiveness in an era of multipolarity.

The ongoing existence of Taiwan as a self-governing democracy is a powerful and humiliating reminder for Beijing of China’s troubled and “embarrassing” history during the 19th and early 20th centuries. The survival of Chinese Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek’s forces on the island, despite being routed by Mao’s Communist Party, was largely due to the protection of the United States.

For the United States, supporting Taiwan is one of the last ideological battlegrounds of the Cold War, representing a recognition of its limitations. Although there is confidence that Taiwan and its allies can repel an invasion, the Japanese government has warned that China could land troops in Taiwan within a week of hostilities starting, signalling potential trouble for the island and the region.

To address this humiliation, Chinese President Xi Jinping has set a “deadline” of 2027 to “reunify” Taiwan with the mainland, escalating tensions and potentially drawing the United States and allies, like Australia, into direct conflict with China.

While an uneasy peace continues in the region, many analysts believe it is only a matter of time before a miscalculation or accident leads to full-blown conflict between the United States and China. Adding to the tension, the Japanese government has released a report expressing concerns about the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s capability to launch a coordinated invasion of Taiwan.

Although China’s proximity to Taiwan gives it an advantage in blockade and invasion efforts, achieving maritime and air dominance before allied forces arrive remains a challenge. The Japanese analysis suggests that while Taiwanese resistance would be significant, it might not be sufficient to turn the tide.

Beijing’s invasion strategy would likely involve multi-domain operations, leveraging “grey zone” and “hybrid” warfare capabilities to gain a tactical and strategic advantage ahead of an allied response. The Japanese analysis states, “Such an operation could run into difficulty in the face of counterstrikes’ from Taiwan and US military intervention, so Chinese military forces apparently intend to seize control of the island before the United States’ main forces could get involved.” China might use “hybrid warfare operations,” combining armed attacks and cyberattacks on vital infrastructure, to delay US and allied interventions.

This approach aims to incapacitate Taiwanese resistance and complicate US response decision-making by reducing the physical presence of US forces and creating unreliable and conflicting information for decision-makers and commanders, giving Beijing time to achieve its objectives.

Australians will need to accept several uncomfortable realities in the coming years. As the Indo-Pacific becomes the most contested region in the world, both the Australian public and policymakers will have to acknowledge that without significant effort, investment, and reform, future generations may face economic challenges, and a nation increasingly influenced by rising regional powers.

China and the Philippines have reached an agreement to ease tensions at the Second Thomas Shoal, a hotspot in the South China Sea known for territorial disputes.

Agreement Details

The new agreement aims to de-escalate tensions without conceding territorial claims. Key points of the agreement include:

• Diplomatic Resolution: The deal was reached after a series of meetings and diplomatic exchanges, highlighting the importance of dialogue and consultation.
• Neutral Stance: Both sides agreed that the deal does not prejudice either party’s positions in the South China Sea.
• Government Announcement: The Philippine government announced the agreement on Sunday.
• Historical Tensions: The worst confrontation involved Chinese forces ramming and attacking Philippine navy boats with a pickaxe, boarding the vessels, seizing supplies, and injuring personnel.

Future Implications

This agreement could set a precedent for similar arrangements with other countries. China has ongoing disputes with several governments over land and sea borders. The success and longevity of this deal remain to be seen.