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Conflict and unrest have long been part of life in the Middle East. The latest developments, although not unprecedented, have the potential to significantly alter the global landscape in the coming weeks.

The current instability follows the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent response. This conflict has expanded throughout the Middle East, threatening global maritime trade and increasing the risk of a worldwide crisis.

The situation escalated with Israel’s assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and unconfirmed reports of an airstrike killing Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces. These actions have heightened tensions and the likelihood of further conflict.

The ongoing Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Strait of Hormuz, and around the Horn of Africa indicate that any resulting conflict will not be confined to the Middle East.

Iran’s leadership is under pressure to respond to these provocations, particularly given the breach of Tehran’s air defence network and the assassination of a high-ranking official. The next move is crucial and rests with Iran.

The potential involvement of the United States adds another layer of complexity. The U.S. military is already stretched thin, and further involvement in the Middle East could strain resources at a time when the global order is fragile.

U.S. involvement in the Middle East has historically been costly, both financially and in terms of human lives. The impact on the American middle class and industrial base has led to growing disillusionment with the political establishment and scepticism about America’s role as a global policeman.

If the U.S. is drawn into another Middle Eastern conflict, this disillusionment may increase, influencing voter sentiment in the upcoming November elections.

Frontline – Ray Payne

Southeast Asia Insight – David White

Taiwan, a self-governing island, stands as a poignant reminder of China’s tumultuous history during the 19th and early 20th centuries, when it was dominated by foreign powers. This period, known as the “Century of Humiliation,” ended with Mao’s victory in 1949 and the retreat of Chinese Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek to Taiwan, with U.S. support.

For the United States, Taiwan represents one of the last Cold War battlegrounds between Marxist Communism and Liberal Democracy. However, the potential conflict over Taiwan is causing leaders across the Indo-Pacific to reconsider the costs and risks involved.

Taiwan must enhance its defence capabilities to withstand increasing hostility from China. President Lai Ching-te is pushing for accelerated modernization and preparation despite significant challenges. Beijing views Lai as a “dangerous separatist” and has intensified military provocations.

Taiwan’s military struggles with a lack of equipment and proper training. Defence Minister Wellington Koo admitted that reservist training needs improvement. Only a small percentage of eligible conscripts have completed the new 12-month training program, raising concerns about Taiwan’s readiness.

This situation is further complicated by political dynamics in the U.S. Former President Trump has suggested a more transactional approach to U.S.-Taiwan relations, contrasting with President Biden’s commitment to defend Taiwan. Taiwan’s slow progress in boosting military training worries experts in Washington and Taipei.

Taiwan’s young people exhibit a “defeatist attitude,” like trends seen in Australia and other Western nations. President Lai has warned against complacency and emphasized the need for readiness. The Kuomintang, Taiwan’s Beijing-friendly party, opposes Lai’s reforms, accusing the government of escalating tensions.

For Australia, this situation underscores the need to adapt to a rapidly changing Indo-Pacific region. Australians must recognize the importance of strategic investment and reform to avoid being overshadowed by rising regional powers. The future will require a shift away from short-term policies toward a more comprehensive strategy to address these complex challenges.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced that Australia has raised its terror threat level from “possible” to “probable.” This decision is based on security advice and reflects an increase in extremist views within the country. The new threat level suggests there is more than a 50% chance of an onshore attack within the next 12 months.

Albanese emphasized that there is no imminent threat of an attack, but the decision follows a noticeable rise in Australians embracing diverse extreme ideologies. He underscored the importance of remaining vigilant during this period of heightened alert.

Mike Burgess, the head of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), provided further insight into the factors contributing to the raised threat level. He noted that tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Hamas conflict, have exacerbated grievances and led to increased protests. These tensions have not only undermined social cohesion but also elevated levels of intolerance within the community.

Australia has experienced several violent attacks recently, some of which have been linked to extremism. In April, a knife attack on an Assyrian church bishop in Sydney was deemed a terrorist act. The bishop had uploaded a sermon last year criticizing Islam, which was believed to have motivated the attack.

The raised threat level serves as a reminder of the ongoing need for vigilance and preparedness in the face of evolving security challenges. The government and security agencies are working closely to monitor and respond to potential threats to ensure the safety and security of all Australians.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30-t7K34beo

Why are aircraft carriers always grey and submarines deep black? These colour choices are crucial for their mission and survival, and the different reasons will astound you! Before we look at why submarines are deep black, let’s first examine why aircraft carriers are always grey. Why Are Aircraft Carriers Grey? Visibility and Camouflage The choice of grey for aircraft carriers results from decades of naval experience and scientific research. This colour’s effectiveness lies in its ability to adapt to various environmental conditions. The ocean’s appearance changes dramatically based on weather, time of day, and geographical location. Grey, with its neutral tone, can seamlessly blend into these varying backdrops. • Morning and Evening Adaptability: In the early morning or late evening, when the sky takes on a pinkish or orangey hue, a grey ship can still maintain a low profile by absorbing and reflecting these colours in a muted fashion. • Foggy Conditions: During foggy conditions, which are common in many naval theatres, grey vessels can become nearly invisible, merging with the misty surroundings. This adaptability is crucial for operations in diverse environments, from arctic waters to tropical seas.

Defence News

The Royal Australian Air Force’s premier international engagement activity, Exercise Pitch Black 24, reached unprecedented heights as it involved approximately 4,400 personnel and 140 aircraft from 20 nations. This iteration marked the largest in the exercise’s 43-year history, with missions often featuring over 50 aircraft at a time, conducted in one of the world’s most extensive military training areas.

Air Commodore Pete Robinson, the Officer Commanding the Exercise, emphasized that the exercise met the training and engagement objectives of all participating nations, while also strengthening international relationships and friendships. “The feedback from all international partners and our own people alike was that Exercise Pitch Black 24 was a world-class air combat training activity,” AIRCDRE Robinson stated. “More than 1,700 missions were flown in the exercise across an area about the size of Great Britain. The value of this exercise comes in the experience we’ve built with international partners, and the friendships and relationships we’ve created with them on the ground and in the air.”

AIRCDRE Robinson also praised his staff for their exceptional handling of an emergency situation when an Italian Air Force pilot ejected from a Typhoon aircraft on 24 July. “We train for these scenarios as part of our safety planning, and I was pleased to see the calm, professional, and quick work by our teams to ensure this positive outcome – I couldn’t be happier with how they all performed.”

Exercise Pitch Black 24 featured first-time participation by aircraft and personnel from the Philippines, Spain, Italy, and Papua New Guinea, along with embedded personnel from Fiji and Brunei. Additionally, it included aircraft from France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States, with embedded personnel from Canada and New Zealand.

The exercise was primarily conducted from RAAF Bases Darwin and Tindal in the Northern Territory, and RAAF Base Amberley in Queensland, showcasing a remarkable display of international cooperation and air combat prowess.

The federal government’s alcohol excise increase on August 5th has left Australians facing a $20 tax on a carton of full-strength beer, with even higher costs at the pub. This move has pushed Australia into having the third highest beer tax in the world, trailing only Norway and Finland.

Amid rising living costs, this tax hike is adding pressure on consumers and brewers alike, leading many smaller breweries to close down their operations or seek administration. One recent casualty is Billson’s in northeast Victoria, which has entered voluntary administration.

The closure of smaller breweries is not an isolated issue. Larger companies are also feeling the strain. Beverage giant Lion announced in June that it would transfer some production of its James Boag line from Tasmania to the mainland. Lion Australia’s managing director, James Brindley, attributed declining beer sales and production volumes to the relentless federal tax increases.

Many breweries are also grappling with deferred tax debt from the pandemic, compounded by the biannual increase in beer excise. Brewers Association chief executive John Preston voiced his concern, stating that the escalating tax hikes are harming beer drinkers, pubs, and clubs across Australia.

Over the past decade, China has increased its economic and political engagement in the Middle East, particularly since the Arab Spring and amid perceptions of U.S. withdrawal from the region. Initially, China balanced relationships with various sides while avoiding conflicts. However, with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched in 2013, China’s involvement has deepened, making it the region’s primary foreign investor since 2016.

China’s regional engagement now spans beyond energy to infrastructure, smart-city projects, innovation hubs, and 5G networks. Middle Eastern countries, disillusioned with U.S. policies, view China as a more reliable partner, appreciating its non-interference in political and human rights issues. This has made the China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) relationship strategic.

Western perspectives have shifted, now viewing China as a significant challenger to U.S. interests. China’s trade with the GCC has surged, from $10 billion in 2000 to over $230 billion in 2021. China has also expanded ties with Israel, despite U.S. pressure limiting some interactions due to security concerns.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has further influenced China’s Middle East approach, leading to increased use of the yuan in Gulf transactions. China has also grown its presence in the region’s defence market, supplying equipment where the U.S. has imposed restrictions.

Diplomatically, China brokered a reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023, highlighting its growing influence. Despite initially cautious responses to the Gaza conflict in 2023, China’s alignment with Arab interests has become clearer, positioning it against U.S. policies.

China’s efforts include facilitating Palestinian reconciliation talks and capitalizing on regional criticism of U.S. support for Israel. While China gains public support, its long-term impact remains uncertain, as U.S. military and political power continues to play a crucial role in the Middle East’s stability.

US Navy News

In a milestone for the AUKUS partnership, Royal Australian Navy (RAN) sailors have graduated from the U.S. Navy’s Basic Enlisted Submarine School (BESS). The graduates, who all distinguished themselves, include one sailor named Honor Graduate for achieving a perfect score.

Chief of the RAN, Vice Adm. Mark Hammond, praised the sailors’ dedication and acknowledged the U.S. Navy’s support in training Australian personnel for the future nuclear-powered submarine fleet. This training is crucial as Australia prepares to acquire Virginia-class submarines by 2030.

Australian sailors are also training with the UK Royal Navy, with the first officers graduating from the UK’s Nuclear Operators Course earlier this month. These efforts are consistent with Australia’s legal commitments, including non-proliferation.

Captain Matthew Fanning, Commanding Officer of the Naval Submarine School, highlighted the rigorous training the Australian sailors underwent. This graduation follows the April 2024 completion of the Submarine Officer Basic Course by the first RAN officers.

The success of these sailors, as noted by Warrant Officer of the RAN Andrew Bertoncin, underscores their skill and knowledge. Vice Adm. Jonathan Mead and Rear Adm. Lincoln Reifsteck emphasized the significance of this achievement for the AUKUS nations, enhancing interoperability and capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region.

AUKUS aims to deliver a conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarine capability to the RAN by the early 2030s, strengthening security and industrial collaboration among Australia, the U.S., and the UK.

Get ready to witness Australia’s military prowess like never before as we delve into the heart of the AS21 Redback Infantry Fighting Vehicle: the newly announced armoured innovation set to revamp the Australian Army! Join us as we explore the Redback’s deadly capabilities and its pivotal role in shaping the future of defence tactics. From its cutting-edge weaponry to advanced protective systems, discover how this formidable machine is poised to dominate the battlefield. Don’t miss out on this exclusive insider’s look into the Redback IFV phenomenon! Subscribe now for more thrilling updates on the latest in military technology!

Amidst Rising Tensions: The South China Sea Conflict.  The South China Sea is at the heart of modern geopolitical conflict, becoming a critical arena for global power struggles. With 40% of the world’s GDP and 20% of its population concentrated here, the stakes have never been higher. As China asserts its dominance in the region, the U.S. and its allies respond with strategic alliances. Is a new Cold War on the horizon Dive deep into this issue and explore the secret manoeuvres shaping the future. Key regional players like Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and Taiwan are preparing for potential conflict. From Japan’s defence policy changes to Taiwan’s survival strategies, discover how nations are responding to China’s aggressive moves. As alliances like the Quad emerge, the possibility of an “Asian NATO” looms large. How will these dynamics unfold?