‘Alarming’ but ‘Not Surprising’: Australia Reportedly Left with Only One Operational Sub amid Repairs and Upgrades

Picture: A Collins Class submarine at Henderson Marine Complex, Western Australia. Credit Australian DoD

US Navy News:
Australia’s ability to maintain an operational submarine fleet has been called into question, as five of its six Collins-class submarines undergo lengthy repairs and upgrades. Defence experts warn this situation highlights a serious “capability gap” that could hinder Australia’s regional security posture and power projection in the Pacific.

Australia’s aging Collins-class submarine fleet is facing a major crisis, with only one boat reported to be fully operational. According to a report by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), five of the six submarines are currently non-operational due to ongoing repairs, upgrades, and unexpected corrosion issues, leaving Australia’s naval presence in the Pacific at risk.

Defence sources report that two submarines are at Adelaide’s Osborne shipyard, which is grappling with delays caused by unexpected corrosion as well as a workforce strike that has slowed maintenance work. The remaining three boats are docked at HMAS Stirling’s Garden Island base in Western Australia. The Ministry of Defence issued a statement assuring the public that “more than one boat” could be deployed if necessary and that the submarines continue to meet government-directed operational levels. However, the exact number of submarines that could be deployed in a combat scenario remains unclear.

Defence analysts have expressed serious concerns. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), described the news as “pretty alarming.” He noted, “If our Collins-class SSKs are non-operational in 2024, I really doubt they will be a credible force through the remainder of this decade, let alone into the next one.” This sentiment underscores the anxiety over a potential capability gap between the expected lifespan of the Collins class and the arrival of new Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the United States, which are slated to begin arriving in the 2030s.

The Collins-class submarines, first commissioned in the 1990s, were initially expected to be decommissioned in the 2020s. Successive Australian governments have delayed making concrete decisions regarding their replacement, which led to the Life-of-Type Extension (LOTE) program announced in June. This initiative aims to extend the boats’ service life into the 2040s, but even this has been scaled back. Originally planned upgrades, including advanced optronics and Tomahawk missile capability, have been reduced due to budget constraints and technical hurdles.

Jennifer Parker, a former Royal Australian Navy officer and now an expert at the National Security College at the Australian National University, pointed out that the fleet’s current state is “not surprising.” “The lesson here is that successive governments have delayed decision making on recapitalization of the Navy. Now the issues can’t be immediately fixed,” Parker said, stressing the

With Canberra unlikely to obtain nuclear-powered submarines from the U.S. or U.K. until the 2030s, experts are proposing alternative solutions to bridge the gap. Malcolm Davis argued that the AUKUS plan could have included options to acquire conventionally powered submarines from allies like Japan or South Korea instead of relying solely on LOTE upgrades.

However, the Royal Australian Navy reportedly opposed this approach out of concern that investing in conventional options would divert political and financial support away from the nuclear-powered fleet planned under the AUKUS agreement.

As part of the AUKUS deal, one U.K. and up to four U.S. submarines are set to rotate through HMAS Stirling in Western Australia by 2027 as part of Submarine Rotational Force – West (SRF-West). While this could help alleviate immediate operational gaps, Davis questioned the effectiveness of relying on foreign assets. “My guess is that government will try to explain that SRF-West will carry the burden if the Collins class boats can’t deploy, but that argument is pretty unconvincing given that the SRF-W boats are U.S. Navy and occasional Royal Navy Astutes,” he said.

The current state of Australia’s Collins-class submarines reflects longstanding challenges in strategic defence planning. With only one operational boat, Canberra’s capacity to respond to regional threats or assert its presence in contested waters is weakened. The situation underscores the critical need for timely decisions in naval procurement and capability maintenance—decisions that will impact Australia’s defence capabilities for decades to come.