CAN AUSTRALIA SERVIVE A MAJOR GLOBAL CONFLICT?

Australia’s lack of self-sufficiency in manufacturing and essential supplies is a serious vulnerability in the event of a major global conflict, particularly if supply routes were cut off. The country’s reliance on imported goods—especially fuel, military hardware, and essential components—would make it extremely difficult to rapidly scale up war production. Here’s an overview of the major concerns:

1. Fuel Supply & Refining Capability

• Australia only has about 90 days of fuel reserves, which is dangerously low in a wartime scenario.
• We import over 90% of our refined fuel, mostly from Asia. If supply routes were disrupted, fuel for military and civilian use would be in crisis.
• Australia shut down most of its refineries, leaving only two (Ampol in Brisbane and Viva Energy in Geelong). If these were targeted or ran out of crude oil, we’d be in serious trouble.
• Without fuel, military operations (ships, aircraft, vehicles) would be severely limited, and even domestic transport, agriculture, and industry would grind to a halt.

2. Shipbuilding & Naval Strength

• We lack large-scale shipbuilding capacity—most of our Navy’s vessels are built overseas or rely on imported parts.
• Australia’s merchant fleet is tiny, meaning we have almost no capacity to move goods independently.
• With most of our trade coming by sea, a blockade would devastate supplies of essential goods.
• The Royal Australian Navy has a relatively small fleet, and while we have submarines and surface ships, they rely on foreign maintenance and parts.

3. Aircraft Manufacturing & Air Force Readiness

• Australia no longer manufactures military aircraft. The days of producing the CAC Boomerang (WWII) or the Nomad (1970s) are long gone.
• Our F-35s, Super Hornets, and other aircraft rely on imported parts—without resupply, maintenance would become impossible.
• We don’t have the ability to rapidly produce drones or fighter aircraft to replenish losses.
• If fuel is in short supply, the RAAF’s effectiveness would be further compromised.

4. Weapons & Ammunition Production

• The Australian Defence Force depends heavily on imported weapons, ammunition, and missiles.
• While there are some local manufacturers (e.g., Thales produces small arms ammunition in Benalla), Australia lacks large-scale munitions production.
• Missiles and high-tech weaponry are almost entirely imported, meaning we’d quickly run out of advanced weaponry.
• Scaling up defence manufacturing would take years, requiring foreign expertise, equipment, and supply chains that might be unavailable in wartime.

5. Clothing & General Manufacturing

• Australia no longer has a large textile industry, meaning military uniforms and boots are largely imported.
• The car industry shut down, which means no domestic ability to mass-produce military vehicles.
• General manufacturing capability is nowhere near what it was during WWII, when Australia produced aircraft, tanks, and ammunition domestically.

6. Food Security & Agriculture

• Australia is a food exporter, which is a strength, but:
  • Fertilizers and chemicals for farming are mostly imported.
  • Diesel shortages would cripple food production and transport.
  • Machinery parts and tractors are foreign made, so breakdowns would lead to serious agricultural disruptions.
  • With most of the population in cities, food distribution could be a major issue.

7. Skilled Workforce & Industrial Base

• The loss of industrial skills due to decades of outsourcing would make it difficult to quickly ramp up war production.
• Training a new generation of tradespeople, machinists, and engineers takes time.
• The reliance on foreign expertise for advanced manufacturing (e.g., submarines, aircraft) would leave us struggling without outside support.

8. Cyber & Energy Vulnerabilities

• Australia imports much of its high-tech military equipment, including electronic warfare systems and guidance technology.
• The country has limited energy resilience—we import components for power grids and rely on overseas supply chains for things like semiconductors.
• Cybersecurity threats could cripple military and civilian infrastructure.

Historical Comparison: WWII vs. Today

• During WWII, Australia had a strong industrial base, producing aircraft, ships, and armaments.
• Today, almost all manufacturing has been outsourced, meaning we don’t have the infrastructure or supply chains in place to repeat that effort.
• Rebuilding wartime industry would take years, not months—by the time production ramped up, the war could be lost.

Conclusion: Australia is in a Dangerous Position

If global supply chains were cut due to a major conflict, Australia would struggle to sustain military and civilian needs. Unlike WWII, when we had a strong industrial base, we now rely almost entirely on imports for fuel, weapons, and critical supplies.

To address this, Australia would need:

• Strategic fuel reserves and domestic refining capacity.
• A revived manufacturing sector, particularly in defence industries.
• A stronger merchant fleet for self-sufficient shipping.
• Increased local food production and distribution resilience.
• More investment in cyber defence and high-tech weaponry.

At present, Australia is unprepared for a long war without external support. If major powers like the US were distracted by their own conflicts, Australia would face severe shortages in fuel, weapons, and manufacturing capability, making national defence incredibly difficult.

Written and Researched by Ray Payne OAM – March 2025