China’s Military Moves: What Australia Must Learn

Chinese Intelligence Collection Vessel Haiwangxing operating off Australia. Australian Department of Defence Photo

China’s military activities in the past fortnight have underscored a stark reality—Beijing will continue aggressive manoeuvres in the South China Sea and beyond. Australia must prepare for more frequent and prolonged visits by advanced Chinese warships, along with continued discrepancies between China’s words and actions.

Three key lessons emerge from recent developments.

1. China’s Military Will Keep Targeting Australia

On 11 February, the Department of Defence reported the fifth known incident of unsafe Chinese military behaviour toward the Australian Defence Force. That same day, a powerful Chinese naval task group was detected in Australia’s northeastern maritime approaches. A week later, Defence confirmed the resumption of high-level military talks with China—the first since 2019. However, just days later, on 21 and 22 February, the Chinese task group conducted two live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea, causing commercial aircraft to adjust flight paths with little notice. Foreign Minister Penny Wong raised concerns with her Chinese counterpart at a G20 meeting in South Africa. These events highlight China’s willingness to challenge Australia while engaging in diplomatic discussions.

Expect China’s military to continue testing Australia and other nations that defend freedom of navigation and overflight. A forthcoming ASPI report will track unsafe incidents involving China’s military against Australia, the US, Canada, the Netherlands, the Philippines, and other countries resisting Beijing’s excessive maritime claims.

2. China’s Words and Actions Don’t Align

China’s readout of the 17 February defence talks emphasised “strategic communication” and handling disputes peacefully. Yet, its actions—such as its South China Sea assertiveness and undisclosed military exercises—contradict these claims. While China’s tactics may shift, its broader strategy remains unchanged: expanding influence and testing adversaries.

3. Expect More Chinese Naval Deployments

Since 2022, China has increased naval operations near Australia’s exclusive economic zone. Originally focused on coastal defence, Beijing’s navy has evolved into a global force, deploying task groups to the Gulf of Aden since 2008 for counter-piracy missions. These deployments, lasting about four months, have been constrained by limited support ships and overseas bases. However, that is changing.

The US Department of Defence reported in December 2024 that China plans to build additional fleet replenishment oilers to extend its navy’s operational reach. With 12 oilers already supporting long-distance deployments, Beijing is prioritising logistical expansion. China’s only overseas base, in Djibouti, along with a presence in Cambodia’s Ream naval base, signals efforts to bolster its naval infrastructure.

As China strengthens its global naval reach, Australia’s limited naval capabilities will face growing pressure to monitor increased Chinese activity. Ensuring regional stability and maintaining freedom of navigation will require sustained vigilance and strategic adaptation.