e for a Strategic Shift: Australia’s Defence Policy Must Evolve

Review and the 1987 Defence of Australia white paper. Despite various updates and tweaks over the years, the core assumptions and frameworks continue to dominate Australia’s defence posture. It’s now urgent that we break from this status quo.

Liz Buchanan, Senior Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), recently echoed this sentiment in a piece titled Australia’s defence is lost in a fog of strategic failure and a lack of imagination. Buchanan’s analysis highlights the shortcomings of our current defence strategy, particularly its Australia’s strategic and defence policies have remained largely unchanged since the 1986 Dibb inability to evolve in response to contemporary threats. In her words, “Our government has boxed itself into a corner. We must spend more on defence, but the suppression of informed public debate and cost-of-living realities make this an unlikely option for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.”

Much of Australia’s current strategic thinking is still shaped by the assumptions of the 1980s. The Dibb Review argued that Australia would have a 10-year warning period in the event of a serious attack, allowing the nation time to mobilize and prepare. This was reinforced by the belief that our access to advanced intelligence systems would provide ample time to detect and respond to threats. However, this long-standing assumption is increasingly outdated. The modern strategic environment is far more dynamic, with threats emerging faster and from more diverse sources.

Deterrence was another key concept from the Dibb Review, advocating that Australia’s defence planning should focus on preventing aggression by demonstrating the capability to respond with force. Yet, Buchanan points out that this model no longer works in today’s multipolar world. Australia’s reliance on deterrence through denial – the idea that showing strength will discourage attacks – is insufficient given the rising threats in our region.

In recent years, Australia has relied heavily on its alliance with the United States. While partnerships are essential, Buchanan warns that this dependence limits Australia’s ability to craft an independent defence policy suited to the evolving Indo-Pacific landscape. She argues that Australia’s defence and foreign policy is still “entrenched in short-term domestic political considerations, devoid of strategic imagination.” This narrow approach leaves Australia vulnerable, particularly as emerging global powers challenge the status quo.

Buchanan also highlights a growing disconnect between Australia’s perception of its role in the international system and the realities of its strategic environment. Australia, she argues, has a “middle-power ego on a small-power budget.” While we aspire to influence global and regional affairs, our defence investments do not match the scale of our ambitions. This creates a dangerous gap between what we want to achieve and what we are capable of defending.

The solution? Buchanan calls for a strategic overhaul, driven by strong leadership and a national conversation about defence. “Government needs to come to the party and rapidly enhance its appetite for risk,” she asserts. Only by acknowledging the harsh realities of the Indo-Pacific can Australia build a defence strategy that is both sustainable and responsive to future challenges.

In short, Australia can no longer afford to rest on the policies of the past. The world has changed, and so must we.