Harris v Trump

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Kamala Harris as President: What Australia Should Expect

RedFlag – James McVicar

A Kamala Harris presidency would likely bring continuity in U.S. foreign and security policy, with some nuanced shifts. Unlike Biden, whose long Senate career made him a predictable figure in global affairs, Harris’s foreign policy approach is less defined due to her limited experience in this area.

Harris’s background as a prosecutor and her brief tenure in the Senate before becoming vice president raises questions about how much of her foreign policy stances reflect loyalty to Biden versus her independent views. Australians will be keen to see where the Indo-Pacific ranks in her priorities.

If Harris becomes president, her initial policies might closely mirror Biden’s, especially regarding the U.S.-China relationship. Though she has no direct experience with China or Taiwan, Harris has criticized China’s human rights record and supported Taiwan’s self-defence. She has also denounced China’s actions in the South China Sea as unlawful.

Australia, as a key U.S. ally, will need to ensure that Harris maintains a strong focus on the Indo-Pacific, despite the many global challenges she will face. While Harris is expected to continue Biden’s policies, particularly in defence and security, Australia should be prepared for possible shifts, such as a stronger emphasis on domestic issues or a different approach to Israel and Palestine.

Harris has shown commitment to Southeast Asia, having attended the ASEAN Summit and supported U.S. allies in the region, such as the Philippines. However, her foreign policy towards India might be cautious, given the country’s desire for strategic autonomy and potential concerns about human rights issues.

On climate, Harris may push for more ambitious policies, building on Biden’s agenda but with a stronger focus on environmental justice. If elected, her administration could increase investment in international climate initiatives, which would benefit climate-exposed regions like the Pacific.

A Harris presidency could also see a focus on engaging young voters, who are passionate about issues like climate change and social justice. If they help her secure the presidency, Harris may be more inclined to address their concerns in her policy decisions.

In summary, Australia can expect Harris to continue the Biden administration’s approach to foreign policy with some potential shifts. Close attention will be needed to understand how her administration might prioritize or adjust U.S. focus on the Indo-Pacific and other key global issues.

Australia Braces for Potential Shifts with a Donald Trump Return

A Donald Trump return to the U.S. presidency would bring significant uncertainties for Australia, particularly in foreign policy and security. Trump’s previous term was marked by an unpredictable approach to international relations, which often disrupted longstanding alliances and global stability.

For Australia, a key concern is the potential volatility in the U.S.-China relationship. Trump’s aggressive stance towards China, including the trade war and confrontational rhetoric, created economic ripples globally. A second Trump term could reignite such tensions, which might destabilize the Indo-Pacific region—an area of critical importance to Australia. Unlike Biden’s measured approach, Trump’s erratic policy shifts could make it harder for Australia to navigate its strategic position between the U.S. and China.

Trump’s “America First” policy may also pose challenges for Australia’s defence strategy. During his previous term, Trump questioned the value of alliances like NATO and pushed for greater burden-sharing among allies. This could lead to renewed pressure on Australia to increase its defence spending or contribute more to U.S.-led initiatives, potentially straining the nation’s resources and diplomatic ties in the region.

Climate policy is another area where Australia might face significant changes under Trump. His past withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and rollback of environmental protections contrasted sharply with global efforts to combat climate change. A return to such policies could undermine international climate cooperation, putting Australia in a difficult position as it seeks to balance economic interests with growing environmental concerns.

Furthermore, Trump’s unpredictable leadership style could lead to abrupt changes in U.S. involvement in global conflicts, which might leave Australia needing to adapt quickly to shifting U.S. priorities. This could complicate Australia’s own foreign policy and defence strategies, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, where stability is crucial for the region’s security and economic growth.

Australia might also have to contend with the possibility of Trump weakening multilateral institutions that play a key role in global governance. His scepticism towards organizations like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization could reduce their effectiveness, making it harder for Australia to rely on these bodies to manage international disputes and trade issues.

In summary, a Trump re-election could introduce new challenges for Australia, requiring careful navigation of an unpredictable U.S. foreign policy. The potential shifts in the U.S.-China relationship, defence Union newspaper expectations, climate policy, and global governance could all have significant implications for Australia’s strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.