How do the US Presidental elections work

In the U.S. presidential election system, voters actually select a slate of electors pledged to their preferred candidate rather than directly voting for the president. These electors make up the Electoral College, which formally elects the president. The total of 538 electoral votes is based on each state’s representation in Congress: each state receives a number of electoral votes equal to its number of House representatives (based on population) plus two senators. Washington, D.C., also receives three electoral votes, bringing the total to 538.

To win the presidency, a candidate must secure a majority of electoral votes, or at least 270. Almost all states (except Maine and Nebraska) use a winner-takes-all system, where the candidate who wins the most popular votes in the state receives all of its electoral votes.

Due to the way electoral votes are distributed, the Electoral College creates an inherent structural bias. States with smaller populations, which tend to lean more Republican, have proportionally more electoral influence because they get two electoral votes regardless of population size. As a result, a candidate like Kamala Harris might need to win the national popular vote by at least two percentage points to have a strong chance of securing an Electoral College majority, according to models like Nate Silver’s. This model suggests that the Electoral College system can give a structural advantage to Republican candidates, making it possible for a candidate to win the presidency without winning the national popular vote.