Is Putin afraid?

By Robert Castle – Quora

Afraid as any man would be when death is on his doorstep.

To reveal the fate of Russia and the demise of Putin you only have to look at Germany post WW2 to see what will happen in the near future. (minus the German Economic Miracle)

Russia is in shambles.

Economy, infrastructure, finance; all are in tatters and were in deplorable condition BEFORE the Ukraine invasion. Some semblance, even a hollowed-out shell, of prior institutions that can somewhat be resurrected after a national calamity or war needs to be present to even get a glimmer of recovery.
Germany recovered (not considering the German Economic Miracle) BECAUSE they had major powerhouses of industry, finance, infrastructure before WW2. Sure, many German cities were bombed to oblivion. Many cities were utterly destroyed with millions of innocent German civilians killed. However much of the major industries and finance during the war was moved to smaller locales with the war industry moved underground far from cities. Much industry and personnel in Germany was still intact post WW2, considering as destructive as WW2 was.
Russia has none of this. It hasn’t existed even before the Bolshevik revolution. Russian industries were/are crude, delicate systems prone to cascade failure from corruption and/or abrupt shocks.

Russian patriotism is gone.

The revolutionary fervour is dead. The revolution that emblazoned the heart, that sparked a pivotal movement, that caused a seismic shift in the Russian mindset is all but gone, a draping rot of nostalgic artwork peppered across the Russian landscape. A once powerful proud nation brought low by its own horrifying hatred of itself.
Centuries of autocratic rule have rendered the Russian people apathetic, misanthropic, selfish, and greedy. All within good reason since the Russian soul has been bludgeoned to serf like submission by murderous rulers. No Russian will ever pick up a sickle or hammer to work again for the common good once all the smoke clears.

The Crown Jewels have already been pilfered from Russia.
After Germany was defeated the Crown Jewels was not just the technology but the army of technicians, scientists, and academia. Post WW2 Russia robbed and plundered Germany with vicious horrifying hatred and then all but squandered this great wealth.
All the IT knowledge workers, scientists, technicians, have left Russia since the beginning of the invasion into Ukraine. A major brain drain.

This point CANNOT be overstated how disastrous this is now and in the post-war phase for Russia. Sure, some may return but why go back – other than for a visit – to substandard living conditions when the majority have already been absorbed into other countries with the other countries usually stellar living conditions compared to Russia? Why go back when most have already set up a posh lifestyle in another country? People want money and a good living. No expat Russian cares about or is patriotic for Mother Russia of which the Russian Zeitgeist died long ago.

Remember nuclear war is not a planet ending event.
Many will survive even in a “mutually assured destruction” nuclear exchange. With the prime article being that most of Russia’s nuclear arsenal is JUNK!! Russia tech is crude at best and has a 50/50 chance of working when new! Russia’s arsenal hasn’t been refurbished in 20 years. Guaranteed 3/4 of them are duds.

What is most likely the outcome – nukes or not – is that Russia will be further destroyed than it already is. The West and China will fight over the vast natural resources.
The people will willingly acquiesce and become servants to the West or China because of the massive influx of riches that inevitably follows Capitalists.

Russia will be divided in two. Western and European Russia to the West and the East to China.

Putin will undoubtedly be killed by the elites of Russia.
Much like rules for rulers from the “The Dictator’s Handbook” by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith:

“The people do not replace the king; the court replaces the king”