Preparing Australia for Supply Disruptions in Wartime – A “First 90 Days” Plan

Australia First Blog

Australia faces significant vulnerabilities in three critical areas during wartime: energy and fuel, pharmaceuticals, and smart devices. These are essential for daily life and national stability, yet the country lacks the domestic production capacity to withstand major supply chain disruptions.

Fuel and Energy Security

As a member of the International Energy Agency, Australia is supposed to hold a 90-day supply of refined fuel. However, the country has struggled to meet this obligation. Domestic refining capacity has decreased, and there are insufficient storage facilities. Recent estimates suggest Australia would only have fuel for days or weeks if supply lines were cut, leading to widespread shortages, impacting supermarkets, air travel, and non-essential businesses.

Even a short-term disruption to fuel supply could have severe consequences, highlighting the country’s lack of preparedness.

Pharmaceutical Dependence

Australia imports around 90% of its pharmaceuticals, with China being a primary supplier. In the event of conflict, especially between China and the U.S., access to medicines would be jeopardized. While Australia has the expertise to produce pharmaceuticals domestically, ramping up production would take time, potentially causing panic and harming public welfare.

Reliance on Smart Devices

Australia also depends heavily on imports for digital devices and components, particularly from China. While shortages of these goods may not be life-threatening, the impact on industrial systems, such as food processing and water treatment, could be significant. Australia currently lacks the capacity to recycle or salvage key electronic components, making it vulnerable to prolonged disruptions in this sector.

Adaptability of Maritime Supply Lines

Australia’s maritime supply routes are flexible, as demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic when global shipping adjusted to disruptions. However, a war, particularly in the South China Sea, would present a greater challenge. To address this, Australia must prepare for the period between the outbreak of conflict and the restoration of international trade.

A “First 90 Days” Plan

To mitigate these risks, Australia should implement a “first 90 days” national mobilisation plan. This plan would focus on boosting domestic stockpiles and manufacturing capacity for fuel, pharmaceuticals, and smart devices. Additionally, diversifying suppliers away from China would strengthen Australia’s resilience.

Involving Industry in Planning

It is crucial for the government to collaborate with industry leaders to develop comprehensive crisis planning. Transparency about national preparedness will boost market confidence, rather than cause alarm. Additionally, diversifying supply chains should not be seen as a provocation but rather as a necessary step to safeguard the country, following China’s own example of onshoring critical resources.

In conclusion, a well-developed “first 90 days” policy would enhance Australia’s ability to endure a conflict, while deterring adversaries by demonstrating readiness and resilience.