Putin’s Plans to Flex His Nuclear Muscles Didn’t Go as Planned

The Krakow Post

Recent satellite images have revealed a significant setback for Russia’s military ambitions, particularly in the realm of nuclear deterrence. At the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, a massive crater approximately 200 feet wide now sits as stark evidence of what appears to be a failed test of Russia’s most modern intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Sarmat, also ominously known as the Satan II. This test, meant to showcase the formidable strength of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, seems to have backfired, casting doubt on the Kremlin’s military prowess.

Satellite imagery captured on September 19 shows the destruction left by what is widely believed to be a missile explosion shortly after launch. The images depict the catastrophic aftermath at the launch site, with visible damage extending across a significant portion of the area. Earlier satellite images of the site show no such damage, suggesting that the failure occurred quite recently, leaving analysts convinced of a major malfunction in the Sarmat missile program.

The damage suggests that the missile exploded in the silo, a dangerous failure that marks a significant blow to the credibility of Russia’s ICBM program. This development stands in stark contrast to President Putin’s previous declarations of the Sarmat being a near-invincible weapon that could carry multiple nuclear warheads with a range of 11,000 miles, capable of reaching targets anywhere across the globe.

Military analysts have already begun weighing in on the implications of this failed test. George Barros, a specialist at the Institute for the Study of War, called it an “informational victory for Ukraine.” For a country already under intense scrutiny due to its aggressive actions in Ukraine, the visible failure of one of its most advanced weapons is both an embarrassment and a loss of strategic face.

Pavel Podvig, another prominent arms control analyst, has observed that test notifications were likely either scrubbed or cancelled after the explosion. According to Podvig, this could indicate that the test did not go as planned from the outset, further underscoring the possibility of deeper systemic problems within Russia’s missile development programs.

The Sarmat ICBM program has long been touted as one of Russia’s crown jewels of military technology, but it has faced persistent development problems. While designed to be a key component of Russia’s future nuclear deterrent, the program has suffered repeated delays, likely worsened by international sanctions and the financial strain facing the Russian economy. The sanctions imposed by Western nations in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have significantly hampered the country’s ability to procure advanced materials and technologies, leading to increased failures and an unreliable testing schedule for the Sarmat missile.

Unsurprisingly, the Kremlin has so far been tight-lipped about the explosion. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, when asked about the incident, stated that they had “no information” regarding the test failure, deferring any further questions to Russia’s military. This silence is in line with Russia’s typical handling of military embarrassments—swiftly deflecting, denying, or downplaying failures that undermine its image as a global superpower.

President Putin has previously bragged about the Sarmat’s capability to bypass missile defence systems and deliver devastation to enemies, yet this recent failure casts significant doubt on those claims. The silence from the Kremlin only adds to the growing questions about the state of Russia’s military-industrial complex and its ability to maintain its status as a nuclear power in the modern era.

The explosion at Plesetsk Cosmodrome is a stark reminder of the challenges Russia faces in maintaining its military ambitions in the face of economic pressure and global isolation. The failed test not only represents a technological and strategic setback but also a symbolic defeat for Russia as it struggles to assert dominance on the world stage.

For now, the world is left wondering how many more setbacks Russia’s nuclear program can endure before its claims of military prowess are brought into serious question.