Renewed Conflict in Syria: Aleppo’s Surprise Takeover
Kyiv Independent
The Syrian civil war, long overshadowed by global crises like COVID-19, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the Gaza conflict, has returned to prominence with the dramatic capture of Aleppo by opposition forces. This strategic and unexpected offensive signals a potential turning point in Syria’s future.
Aleppo, Syria’s industrial heart and once the country’s second-largest city, had been under firm control of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, backed by Russia and Iran. However, a coalition of opposition groups seized the moment created by regional and global distractions to launch their attack.
A Divided Syria
Syria remains fragmented into three main zones:
- The Assad Government: Supported by Russia and Iran, it controls key cities such as Damascus and Homs.
- Turkey-backed Sunni Forces: These operate in northern Syria and include groups like the Syrian National Army (SNA).
- US-backed Kurdish Forces: The Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) hold northeastern Syria, rich in oil and wheat.
The Aleppo Offensive
The assault on Aleppo was spearheaded by a coalition of rebels, notably Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkey-supported SNA. HTS, a group with origins in Al-Qaeda, emerged as a significant force in Idlib, which had become a haven for displaced populations and jihadist remnants after the fall of the Islamic State in 2019.
Turkey appears to have played a key role in uniting these groups. With the US politically preoccupied following its election, Turkey seized the opportunity to further its influence in northern Syria and counter the Kurdish YPG.
Global Distractions
Several factors contributed to this window of opportunity for the rebels:
- Russia’s Focus on Ukraine: Moscow’s war efforts have drained its resources, reducing its ability to support Assad.
- Iran’s Internal Challenges: Political instability, including the loss of key leaders and rumours of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s illness, has weakened its involvement in Syria.
- The October 7 Model: Inspired by Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel, Syrian opposition forces coordinated their offensive, catching Assad off-guard.
The Path Ahead
For now, opposition forces have consolidated their hold on Aleppo, with morale bolstered by their success. However, Assad’s government is expected to launch counter-offensives, relying on its core support from Shiite-Alawite and secular communities. Meanwhile, Turkey will likely continue supplying rebels to advance its strategic goals.
The renewed conflict underscores Syria’s fractured state, with each faction entrenching its power. Prospects for peace remain elusive, as international interests and local rivalries perpetuate the war.
