The Risks of Ignoring the Need for Readiness
The primary unspoken threat is an aggressive China, a topic avoided in official discourse. This avoidance is understandable for now but will soon be unsustainable as the public becomes more informed.
The challenge of dealing with China is reminiscent of past geopolitical threats like Imperial Germany and the Soviet Union. There’s a current need to heed these historical lessons. History will judge whether the warning signs were acted upon or ignored. The current evidence suggests that a war with China is a credible prospect, making decision-making critical.
An Indo-Pacific war would be one of the most anticipated strategic events, yet operational or tactical surprise attacks cannot be discounted, as shown by Israel’s surprise by Hamas in October 2023. Calls to enhance warning capabilities are sensible, as indicators and warning (I&W) systems should monitor signs of China’s military readiness and other preparatory moves.
Historically, surprise attacks like Pearl Harbor and the Cuban Missile Crisis have shown the importance of robust warning systems. The intelligence process is inherently probabilistic, and while predicting war remains complex, improvements in data analysis and AI could enhance predictive capabilities. Despite these advances, uncertainty will always remain.
Policymakers need to consider the probabilities seriously. The historical assumption that economic interdependence prevents war is flawed. War often results from calculated risks by aggressive powers, not accidental missteps.
In Australia’s intelligence model, assessments should guide policy without being distorted by political convenience. Our political leaders need to integrate intelligence with their strategic vision, preparing for potential conflicts based on informed conjecture rather than certainties.
Given China’s strategic ambitions and the volatile geopolitical landscape, Australia’s leaders must weigh intelligence assessments carefully. Diplomatic efforts should continue alongside military preparedness to navigate the risks of confrontation with China. Ensuring that public discourse includes independent strategic assessments could help inform and prepare our nation for potential future conflicts.
Frontline Opinion
