The Timing of China’s Recent Naval Manoeuvres Has Not Gone Unnoticed

China’s recent live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea mark the furthest south a Chinese naval group has ever ventured. While some initially saw the timing as an attempt to influence Australia’s strategic positioning ahead of the federal election, many analysts believe the visit of US Indo-Pacific Command chief, Admiral Samuel Paparo, to Sydney played a key role.

Paparo, responsible for US preparations against potential conflict with China, is frequently criticised by Beijing for his stance on the People’s Liberation Army’s activities in the South China Sea. Beijing has a pattern of staging military displays to coincide with high-profile US visits, asserting its reach into the South Pacific.

Legally, China’s manoeuvres stayed within international boundaries. The warships exited Australia’s exclusive economic zone before conducting live-fire exercises. However, the broader message is clear: Beijing is asserting its naval presence in these waters, testing US and allied reactions.

Rather than primarily influencing Australian politics, the exercises appear aimed at Washington. Nevertheless, they inevitably impact the Australia-China relationship. The Albanese government responded with measured diplomacy, requesting greater notice to prevent disruptions to commercial aviation and reaffirming Australia’s commitment to UNCLOS principles. There was no strong condemnation, reflecting a careful balancing act.

Questions remain about Beijing’s broader political intentions. Security agencies warn of potential foreign influence, cyber activities, and disinformation campaigns in support of Albanese’s government. Meanwhile, the Coalition has subtly recalibrated its China stance.

This shift reflects an effort to balance security concerns with diplomatic pragmatism. While both Dutton and Albanese prioritise Australia’s interests, they adopt different strategies—Dutton highlighting security, Albanese focusing on restoring diplomatic ties. Whether this strategic shift is a genuine policy evolution, or a political tactic remains uncertain.

A notable diplomatic signal is Wang Yi’s “empty list” of demands—a subtle indication of China’s current approach to Australia. As Beijing watches the federal election closely, it is likely betting on continued Labor leadership to ensure stability in its dealings with one of America’s key regional allies.