Three Key Pacific Island Nations Under Duress from China’s Malign Influence Campaign

In the strategic geography of the Western Pacific, the “Second Island Chain” is a pivotal area for American and Allied forces to establish staging areas, bases, and generate capabilities to deter or defeat any potential Chinese overt invasion of Taiwan or the seizure of Philippine territory. This Second Island Chain begins with the Republic of Palau at the southwestern end, followed by the Federated States of Micronesia, and includes the U.S. territories of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands.

Communist China appears to be employing a Clausewitzian strategy of “Double Envelopment” against this chain of islands, engaging in subversive activities at both ends. At the northern end of the Second Island Chain, Chinese nationals have taken advantage of a visa-free entry process, a tactic highlighted by Pacific Islands expert Cleo Paskal.

Even more concerning is China’s manoeuvring around the southern end of the Second Island Chain. Beginning with Palau, the Chinese regime seems to be actively undermining the internal governance of the country, creating instability. Extending a line almost perpendicular from Palau, China has strategically advanced its influence much like Japan did during the Second World War. This has led to the consolidation and isolation of the Solomon Islands under Chinese influence. In addition, regions that Japan failed to secure during World War II, such as French New Caledonia, are now experiencing violent unrest, further suggesting China’s strategic manoeuvring in the area.

Overall, the Second Island Chain is not only a critical defensive line for the United States and its allies but also a focal point of Chinese strategic efforts to weaken and outmanoeuvre the Western Pacific’s established power structures.