The discussion surrounding China’s rapid ascent and its global ambitions prompts a critical question: are concerns about Beijing’s intentions and capabilities justified or misguided? History is akin to a flowing river, and external influences can alter its course, much like contaminants affecting downstream water quality.

The foundations of our contemporary world, marked by increasing global competition, trace back not merely a few years or decades but to intense rivalries of the 20th century and earlier. The clash between revolutionary Marxist communism, epitomized by Stalin’s Soviet Union and subsequently Mao’s People’s Republic of China, and the capitalist West defined much of this period. This ideological confrontation, rooted in perceived exploitation by the ruling elite and colonial expansion, fueled post-war decolonization.

The ensuing Cold War era, with the United States leading the capitalist, Western, liberal democratic world, kept global tensions sub-nuclear but active. Despite occasional proxy conflicts, intelligence agencies engaged in “grey” zone operations, expanding the geopolitical competition. The Soviet Union’s collapse in 1990 seemingly marked the triumph of liberal democracy and capitalism, leading to the “End of History.”

Fast forward to the present, and the optimism following the Soviet Union’s demise has given way to a more uncertain future. The current “Cold War” is defined not just by ideological rivalry but by economic, strategic, and demographic competitions. China, under Mao’s leadership, emerges as a juggernaut studying historical lessons and aiming to reshape the global status quo.

The post-World War II economic and strategic order is under siege, with waning confidence in the United States’ capacity as the world’s hegemon. Economic decline in the West, contrasted with China’s dynamism, contributes to global uncertainty. The potential for territorial expansion, especially regarding Taiwan, adds a concerning dimension to the geopolitical landscape.

However, amidst the apprehension, there are nuances to China’s power. The Economist’s analysis emphasizes the need for a balanced perspective. While China appears assertive and hostile, its military shortcomings and economic challenges, including a property crunch and hostility towards the private sector, temper its strength.

Despite concerns, the West, particularly the US-led world order, lacks a comprehensive understanding and intelligence capacity regarding China. This gap offers an opportunity for the US and its allies to strategize. Xi’s consolidation of power faces challenges, both militarily and economically.

China’s military prowess, despite being formidable, has weaknesses. Economic challenges, including a property crisis and a shift in the Communist Party’s stance towards the private sector, hinder growth. The West, including Australia and the United States, must approach China realistically, identifying weaknesses and leveraging them to ensure responsible international conduct.

In shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific, the actions of China, the United States, and allies will play a pivotal role. While cooperation is mutually beneficial, it should not compromise fundamental values. Viewing China realistically and focusing on its vulnerabilities will be crucial in navigating the complexities of this evolving global order. Both the United States and its allies, including Australia, must strike a balance in military capabilities to address regional challenges effectively.

With compliments

In reference to the recently distributed ‘Repatriation Benefits for Gold Card Veterans’, yesterday during a GP consultation, I introduced my eligibility.

After discussion and research, I requested prescriptions [with repeats] for 3 different items.

Prescriptions written and dispensed. [with considerable savings]

Please do not hesitate in bringing this matter to your GP’s attention.

‘Use it or lose it’!

Ralph Wollmer

The Norfolk Island RSL charter began many decades ago.  In 1921 the Norfolk Island men returning from WWI formed a Returned Service League for the veterans’ who served.  For WWI and WWII Norfolk Island contributed more service personnel per capita than any other Commonwealth nation of the world.  A proud history.

Norfolk Island has the first service in Australia owing to the time differences.  We have a very poignant Kapyong Day service remembering the Korea War and then ANZAC services begins with a Dawn service on Emily Beach which is very memorable.

This is our first time using a Travel Centre in Norfolk Island to market and sell our (RSL) packages; this being  ANZAC week 2024.  This launch is late in the travel industry nuances so there are only 37 packages available on a first come basis?

Would you consider distributing this NI RSL Sub Branch ANZAC 2024 package to your Diaspora and colleagues and social motorbike club for ex-service members please?  The package is shown at the attachment.

Thankyou for leaving your card with Eddy and I hope to see you and your friends next year or perhaps in subsequent years.

Kind regards,

Tet

Kind regards,

Terence (Tet) Grube JP

Hon Sec

Norfolk Island RSL Sub Branch

Ph: +6723 54848

Email: [email protected]

CLICK ON THESE LINKS TO VIEW TRAVEL PACKAGES

Anzac Day 2024 – BPT Package (1)

Anzac Day 2024 – NITC Package

The first nuclear-powered submarine to be constructed under the AUKUS alliance is anticipated to be sold to Australia in the year 2038, as disclosed by a high-ranking US naval officer. Additionally, the officer, Vice Admiral Bill Houston, shared that the initial transactions involving used Virginia-class submarines are likely to take place in 2032 and 2035.

Visiting Sydney for a separate media event, the commander of the US Pacific fleet assured Australians that their country would maintain complete sovereignty over the American technology when the submarines are eventually deployed. Vice Admiral Houston outlined a provisional timeline for the transfer of Virginia-class submarines to Australia within the AUKUS framework during a briefing in Washington.

As reported by Breaking Defence, Vice Admiral Houston indicated that the planned sales of “in-service submarines” to Australia are scheduled for 2032 and 2035. Subsequently, in 2038, Australia is expected to acquire a newly constructed Block VII version of the Virginia-class submarine. Notably, this Block VII submarine will lack the Virginia Payload Module, a mid-body section found on certain fleet boats that enhances missile capacity.

In adherence to the AUKUS agreement, the United States is committed to selling a minimum of three, and potentially up to five, Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s. Following this phase, the United Kingdom will collaborate with Australia to jointly construct a new SSN-AUKUS submarine fleet.

While Defence Minister Richard Marles has yet to comment on the specifics of the proposed pathway for nuclear-powered submarines, he expressed optimism earlier in the week, highlighting broad political support for the project in the US. He noted ongoing legislative efforts in the US Congress aimed at facilitating the sale of Virginias and enabling Australia’s contribution to the American industrial uplift.

To enable the transfers to Australia, US officials emphasize the need to increase the annual production rate of Virginia-class submarines from the current 1.2 vessels to well above 2 per year. Marles underscored this requirement at the International Maritime Exposition in Sydney, stating the importance of enhancing production capacity.

In a revealing disclosure, Vice Admiral Houston conveyed that Australian assets had been targeted by the Chinese military in numerous dangerous intercepts conducted in the South China Sea over the past two years. He expressed deep concern about the increasing provocations and hazards posed by these actions.

Despite concerns raised by critics of the AUKUS partnership, suggesting potential entanglement in a future US-China conflict over Taiwan, Admiral Paparo dismissed these worries. Emphasizing the importance of sovereignty as an expression of human dignity at the state level, he underscored mutual respect as the foundational principle of the alliance. Admiral Paparo also expressed his confidence in the Australian government’s recent decision not to terminate a Chinese-owned company’s lease of Darwin Port.

As Iceland prepares for a potential volcanic eruption, the nation has declared a state of emergency, prompting the evacuation of over 3,000 residents from the coastal town of Grindavík in the southwestern peninsula. The Icelandic authorities, particularly scientists from Iceland’s Met Office, have noted changes in the situation, suggesting that magma might be nearing the surface. On Monday, it was determined that the primary area of magma upwelling is approximately 3.5 kilometres northeast of Grindavík.

The looming eruption raises questions about its nature, associated risks, potential travel disruptions, and the geological factors contributing to Iceland’s seismic activity. If the volcano erupts, it would be an unprecedented event for the country’s 360,000 residents, reminiscent of the unexpected 1973 eruption in Vestmannaeyjar that destroyed 400 homes.

The Civil Protection Agency reports a 15-kilometer-long magma corridor extending from just northwest of Grindavík into the Atlantic Ocean, based on data collected on Saturday. Magma, a mix of molten and semi-molten rock beneath the Earth’s surface, can lead to eruptions when it reaches the surface, manifesting as lava. Experts suggest that an underwater eruption would be more explosive due to the interaction with seawater, with the potential for a Surtseyan eruption similar to the 1963 incident that formed the island of Surtsey.

Despite uncertainties, experts like Michele Paulatto from Imperial College London and Bill McGuire from University College London offer insights. While Paulatto emphasizes the potential explosiveness if the magma interacts with seawater, McGuire notes the difficulty in predicting the eruption’s size. The evacuated town of Grindavík faces an uncertain fate, depending on where the magma eventually reaches the surface.

There remains a possibility that the magma may not breach the surface at all, as pointed out by volcanologist Dave McGarvie from the University of Lancaster. He suggests that the best-case scenario is the dike formed by the magma cooling and solidifying without erupting. Nevertheless, seismic activity has already taken a toll on the region, with damaged roads and infrastructure resulting from earthquakes.

In response to the potential threat, the Civil Protection Agency evacuated Grindavík, citing the risk of the magma tunnel reaching the town. Despite evacuations, some residents were permitted to return briefly under police escort to retrieve pets and essential items. Additionally, precautionary measures include the closure of the famous Blue Lagoon, a popular geothermal spa north of Grindavík, due to the potential release of toxic fumes, including corrosive sulphur dioxide, which could pose health risks to the local population and tourists depending on wind direction.