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What about Ukraine’s Abrams tanks?
Recent losses underscore the importance of doctrine and training—not just weapons—in war.
DEAN LOCKWOOD,
FORECAST INTERNATIONAL
APRIL 11, 2024 03:53 PM ET
In early March, press reports of the battle at Berdychi, five miles northwest of Avdiivka, asserted that the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade lost three M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks, at least four M2A2 Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and two Assault Breacher Vehicles in combat there. These losses represent 10 percent of the brigade’s tanks, five percent of its infantry fighting vehicles and about one-third of its armored engineer vehicles.
In late March, independent visual reporting confirmed four destroyed Abrams tanks in the vicinity of Avdiivka. Make that 12.9 percent of Ukraine’s Abrams lost in one battle.
However. these reports also said the capture of the rubble of Avdiivka cost the Russians “at least 16,000 dead, probably tens of thousands of wounded and nearly 800 armored vehicles.” Vague reports of Ukrainian losses suggest a few thousand killed, thousands more wounded, and fewer than 100 armored vehicles lost. The Ukrainians claimed the battle effectively halted the advance of the Russian 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies.
The M1A1 Abrams figured prominently, albeit not in detail, in these news accounts of Avdiivka and Berdychi. Such reports will likely feature prominently in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s next series of demands for more U.S. and European financial and material support.
But the Ukraine war persists in begging the question: are advanced weapons like the M1A1 Abrams truly force multipliers in Ukraine? Or are they destined to be lost and abandoned on the battlefield?
While many defense pundits wax eloquently about the technological sophistication of Western combat vehicles, the Forecast International Weapons Group once again maintains technology alone is not the key to modern armored warfare. How these weapons are employed tactically is, and always will be, the key factor.
Both the Ukrainian and Russian armies have exhibited a remarkable lack of aptitude, let alone inclination, to properly exploit the potential of advanced weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine. This is not surprising, however, as both armies provide a mirror image of each other in terms of modern tactical sophistication…or, more precisely, the lack thereof.
If the Western combat vehicles in Ukraine, such as the Abrams, are employed with crews and commanders well-grounded in Western armored warfare doctrine, the impact on the battlefield could be devastating for Russian forces. But if Ukrainian forces insist on employing these Western weapon systems according to their existing Soviet-style doctrine, the results on the battlefield will remain mixed at best, disastrous at worst. Even the most sophisticated weapon in the world is utterly useless in untrained (or poorly trained) hands.
Sadly, as the slaughter in and around Avdiivka and Berdychi reflect, continues to indicate the Ukrainians have NOT embraced Western armored combat doctrine. Indeed, the Ukrainians are still operating in the same discredited Russian mode.
Technology does not win battles. Properly trained soldiers win battles.
The commander of the U.S. military in the Indo-Pacific region, Admiral Aquilino, has identified the Chinese Communist Party and Russia as significant threats in the area. These threats are outlined in the U.S. national defense strategy, particularly emphasizing Russia’s illegitimate invasion of Ukraine.
Admiral Aquilino oversees all U.S. military operations across the expansive Indo-Pacific region, which spans 36 countries from India to Carabosse, encompassing 14 time zones and half of the world’s population. This vast area is commonly referred to as IndoPACOM.
His responsibilities include managing various volatile situations, ranging from the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to the Korean Demilitarized Zone (KDZ).
Admiral Aquilino articulated his primary mission as twofold: firstly, to prevent conflicts in the region, and secondly, to be prepared to effectively engage and succeed if conflicts arise.
Central to the latter objective is the integration and synchronization of U.S. forces with allies and partners. Admiral Aquilino emphasized the significance of alliances, friendships, and partnerships throughout the region, both in military and economic terms.
He highlighted the immense strength derived from collaborative efforts, stating that the combined capabilities of the U.S. and its partners far exceed those of any potential adversary. This, he believes, underscores the challenge faced by any adversary in confronting the interconnected network of like-minded nations in today’s globalized world.
Admiral Aquilino pointed to several joint exercises as examples of this collaborative approach. For instance, the Talisman Sabre exercise, originally a bilateral U.S.-Australian event, has evolved to include the participation of 12 to 14 nations, demonstrating the broadening scope of cooperation across the Pacific region.
SAS Association chair Martin Hamilton-Smith says outgoing Defence Force Chief Angus Campbell’s legacy would be marred by accusations of war crimes levelled against ADF personnel serving in Afghanistan.
Mr Hamilton-Smith said General Campbell “spent a lot of time” focusing on issues relating to the last war in Afghanistan which subjected veterans to a “circus of accusation”, but the blame also lay at the feet of the Morrison government, including former Defence Minister Linda Reynolds.
“I think we’ve learned a lot from the way government and the ADF handled allegations regarding possible war crimes in Afghanistan,” he said.
“And I think that we have to ensure when such matters arise as they will, that they’re handled in accordance with due process.
“And we don’t have we don’t have a circus of accusations and media speculation impacting on the physical and mental health and well being of hundreds of courageous and solid soldiers who put their life on the line for their country and then sort of find themselves caught out in in a controversy that has not been tested in a proper due process.
“It’s guilt by accusations, and I just think the way it was handled, not not just by General Campbell by the way, but I think by Minister Reynolds at the time, on reflection it would have been nice if those matters had been handled quite differently.”
Mr Hamilton-Smith said the ADF’s capabilities ultimately fell on the government, warning that in its current state the defence force was not adequately prepared for a future conflict.
“At the end of the day, it’s the government that is responsible for making sure that our defence forces are ready and properly resourced,” he said.
“The CDF can only work with the resources and the leadership that government provides.
“And I think successive governments need to reflect on the current capabilities of the ADF and ask themselves whether they’ve made sufficient investment.
“What’s very clear is that the ADF is a long way from being ready for a future conflict in the short to medium term.”
A visit to Greece bagged a great variety of aircraft from many nations flying low in the valleys. A personal highlight was for myself to photograph an F-4 Phantom flying low level and with its retirement from the Hellenic air force due soon the clock was ticking. A second first was two capture not one but four Mirage 2000 again from the Hellenic air force flying in the valley. This was their first known low level run in their own country. Other aircraft to drop into the valley where, F-16 From the Romanian Air Force F-16 from the Hellenic air force Eurofighter typhoon from The Royal Saudi Air Force Dassault Rafale from the French Navy Dassault Rafale from the Quatar Emiri air force
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has recommended a raft of senior ADF leadership changes to the Governor-General.
Vice Chief of the Defence Force Vice Admiral David Johnston AC, RAN, will be appointed as the new Chief of the Defence Force, replacing retiring Chief General Angus Campbell AO, DSC, the Prime Minister’s office confirmed this morning (9 April).
The changes are subject to the Governor-General’s consideration and approval, with the changes expected to take effect in July.
VADM Johnston joined the Australian Defence Force in 1978 and has served as the Vice Chief of the Defence Force since 2018.
Under the appointments, Air Marshal Robert Chipman AO, CSC, will be appointed as Vice Chief of Defence Force, having served as Chief of the Air Force since July 2022.
In his place, Air Vice-Marshal Stephen Chappell, DSC, CSC, OAM, will be appointed Chief of the Air Force, having served as the head of military strategic commitments.
The Prime Minister’s office has also confirmed that the Chief of the Defence Force and secretary of Defence, Greg Moriarty, recommended several additional appointments within the ADF to Minister for Defence Richard Marles.
Under the recommendations, Major General Susan Coyle, AM, CSC, DSM, is expected to replace Lieutenant General John Frewen, AO, DSC, as Chief of Joint Capabilities.