In the realm of modern U.S. presidents, Donald Trump stands as a polarizing figure, sparking either exuberant celebration or profound concern. His unexpected victory in 2016 marked a departure from the political norm, and he wasted no time establishing himself as the adversary of the mainstream media and traditional global alliances.
At the core of Trump’s appeal was his connection with the “forgotten Americans,” the working and middle class left behind by the forces of globalization. In his quest to “Make America Great Again,” he tapped into the sentiment that the post-Second World War order had failed these communities, promising a revival of Ronald Reagan’s era of economic prosperity.
Trump’s direct communication with the heartland of America, particularly in the Rust Belt and flyover states, resonated with those who felt overlooked. His commitment to end foreign wars and ensure that U.S. allies shared the burden garnered additional support from those tired of shouldering the costs in terms of “blood and treasure.”
The Trump administration’s transactional approach to foreign policy, coupled with the president’s bold and unapologetic style, raised concerns among the global policymaking establishment. Nations like Australia, traditionally reliant on U.S. strategic benevolence, faced the need to become self-sufficient.
Despite the initial shockwaves and apprehension following Trump’s first election, some positive aspects of his foreign policy. The administration provided weapons to Ukraine, brokered peace deals in the Middle East, and pushed European countries to increase defence spending.
The concern, revolves around the perception that a second Trump administration would be unbounded, marked by retribution, economic protectionism, and deals that are advantageous to the U.S.
A second Trump term could lead to shifts in U.S. commitments, such as potentially abandoning financial support in Europe and unsettling NATO. Others speculate on Trump’s unwavering support for Israel, possible deals with China’s president on Taiwan, and the broader tightening on global stability.
In the face of Trumps re-election, there’s a need to move beyond anguish and impose order on anxiety. The world has changed, and countries, particularly middle powers like Australia, must take more direct responsibility for their security and prosperity.
The reality is that the United States, in relative terms, is facing challenges and internal divisions. Whether under Trump or another leader, nations like Australia must adapt to a new global order, acknowledging the era of great power competition and multipolarity. Australia must prepare a transparent and collaborative approach between policymakers, elected officials, and the public to navigate this evolving landscape.
In essence, what is required is a nuanced understanding of Trump’s unconventional approach, acknowledging both positive and what we may see as negative outcomes. It encourages a pragmatic assessment of the changing global dynamics and emphasizes the need for countries to take charge of their destinies in an era of shifting power dynamics.